By Patrick Harris, Atef Hassan and Manu Rajput

War in the Persian Gulf has caused a countercyclical spike in M&A activity around natural resources in some EMEA markets, sector advisors have noted.

Total EMEA natural resources M&A has dipped in 1H26 to EUR 20.9bn compared to EUR 23bn in 1H25, with the GCC countries understandably banking their poorest first half since 2022.

And yet Turkey – sat neatly between the war in the Persian Gulf and Europe scrambling to secure supply of raw material – has seen natural resources M&A volume at EUR 3bn compared to zero deals with disclosed values in 1H25.

This has been anchored by the EUR 1.3bn acquisition by Cengiz Holdings of the Copler gold mine from SSR Mining. While this is a long way from energy security, it is indicative of an increased investment interest in resources situated in lower risk postcodes.

Gas and other natural resource-producing countries in Europe and its outskirts, such as Norway, Greenland, Cyprus, Israel, Turkey, Tunisia and Algeria, Azerbaijan and Central Asian nations, have accrued combined M&A of EUR 4bnacross 44 deals in 1H26, a 28% increase in volume from the same period last year. Natural gas was an immediate chokepoint when conflict erupted in the Middle East at the start of the year, with European access to this most important energy source immediately suffocated.

Methane, for example, is difficult to store and difficult to transport, and when another war - let's not forget the seismic impact of the Ukraine war on gas supplies - adds supply chain disruption there might be a tendency to give up on it all together and seek alternative sources of energy. But unfortunately for Europe, its entire economy is fuelled by this most fickle of gases.

“It is clear that investors are increasingly favouring jurisdictions adjacent to Europe with existing export infrastructure, less politically exposed supply chains and established regulatory frameworks,” Luke Kanczes, head of oil and gas at Gneiss Energy, said.

Azerbaijan has strengthened its position as a strategic supplier following reduced Russian gas exports, including signing long-term agreements with major European players and attracting investment in the Southern Gas Corridor (SGC)via XRG to support expansion of the Trans Adriatic Pipeline (TAP), he added.

Norway has similarly responded to changing supply dynamics by reopening three North Sea gas fields.

Egyptian opportunity

Rich in gas and unaffected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Egypt could be the next market to benefit from a spike in oil and gas M&A, with several live or expected deals in pipeline, several sector advisors noted.

Based on these ongoing deals alone, Egyptian M&A volume could very well double by the end of the year.

Among those are London-listed, GBP 244m-market cap Capricorn Energy, which is mostly Egypt focused and is the subject of a competing bids from its Iraq-focused peer Genel Energy, and Saudi Arabia's Alamadiyaf al-Masiyyah, part of the Cafani Group.

In March, Capricorn also received and rebuffed an offer from Dragon Oil for its Western Desert assets.

Later that month, this news service first reported that US sponsor Carlyle is seeking to invest into, or alongside, Egyptian-owned Cheiron Energy, which is the operator of the same Western Desert assets. The US sponsor had previously agreed to acquire Energean’s Egyptian, Italian and Croatian assets at an enterprise value of USD 945bn before that deal fell apart in March 2025.

While in April, Arcius Energy, a joint venture owned by BP and ADNOC, committed USD 500m to develop the Harmattan gas field. “There are good resources and it’s relatively easy to make money,” one sector lawyer said. “So, some will either double down or get taken out, as the need to invest capex will crystallise those who want more exposure versus those who want to exit.”

The Egyptian moment has arisen for reasons beyond the demand on its northern doorstep for gas. Investors have long avoided the country due to the inability to get paid, and the inability to turn Egyptian pounds into foreign currency.

But now the situation has turned around and on 10 June, the Egyptian petroleum ministry announced that it has cleared its USD 6.1bn debt owed to intentional oil and gas companies.

“This has materially improved the attractiveness of Egyptian upstream assets,” Kanczes said. “Combined with ongoing economic reforms, this has helped restore confidence among international operators and investors.”

The war in the Persian Gulf has recalibrated investor perceptions around investible geographies to pursue natural resources M&A, and Egypt’s domestic housekeeping has come at an ideal time for it to take advantage of this diversification wave.

Regions that had been considered politically and technically challenging are now frontier investment destinations.

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Gneiss Energy