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Commentary: Oil price, Genel Energy, Gulf Keystone, Trinity Exploration

22/06/2020

WTI $39.75 +91c, Brent $42.19 +68c, Diff -$2.44 -23c, NG $1.67 +3c

Oil price

The Opec+ JMMC meeting endorsed the views of the Joint Technical Committee after Thursday’s meeting and not only did they confirm that production cuts are being adhered to but that demand is picking up as well. Oil rose just under a dollar and Brent is up another 20 cents  this morning.

The Baker Hughes rig count made new record lows with the overall number of units down 13 to 266 and oil down another 10 to 189. US production continues to fall across the board and there appears to be quite a lot of selling for cash just to pay the debtors…

Genel Energy

Genel announced on Friday that it had received payment from the KRG for May 2020 sales from Taq Taq of a net $1.9m and from Tawke a net $6.6m at Brent prices of $28.98.

And this morning has also announced that Canan Ediboglu has joined the board as an independent Non-Executive Director. She is highly experienced in the oil and gas world having recently taken senior roles in banking after a near thirty year career with Shell specifically in Turkey.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Friday, whilst not having a blog, saw GKP announce a corporate and operational update in its AGM statement. CEO Jón Ferrier said that ‘we are now well placed to weather the current environment’.

Production is 36,000 bopd with the average gross production ytd of 37,232 bopd. The company continues to optimise its plans for a quick and effective restart of the 55/- bopd expansion project. The company report opex and G&A cost savings of 20% y/y and with new guidance of opex of $2.7-$3.1 pb against $3.9 in 2019.

These cuts include a 40% reduction of the workforce including 60% of expats and capex for 2020 is down $40-80m net, a 50% reduction since 2019. GKP has cash of $144m as at 17/6/20 having culled the dividend and share buy-back scheme when the KRG payments were axed.

Trinity Exploration

In their AGM statement Trinity announced that Production so far in 2020 has reached 5 year highs at 3,269 bopd against 3,007 in 2019 with cash balances at the end of April of $16.3m. Expect 2020 FY average operating break-even of some $20.50 pb vs ytd oil price of $36.40 and a current WTI of $37.96 pb.

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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