Macroeconomic factors promise to boost oil requirements and bolster prices, which may see the market spring a surprise.

Oil prices in 2020 will recover smartly from late 2019 levels, as demand regains its mojo and supply growth continues to moderate.  A weaker US dollar—brought about by globally accommodative monetary policies and a reduction in economic policy uncertainty—also will support prices.

As such, BCA Research forecasts 2020 Brent prices averaging $70/bl, well above a consensus forecast of under $62.40/bl produced by over 50 economists and economist survey in an October Thomson Retuters poll.

The recovery in the benchmark oil price is premised on a relatively upbeat assessment of supply and demand dynamics next year—production discipline by Opec+ and capital market restraints on US shale—oil output will moderate supply growth; globally accommodative financial conditions will support demand growth. 

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