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Commentary: Oil Price, Afentra, Genel, Seascape

07/07/2026

WTI (Aug) $68.55 -14c, Brent (Sep) $71.99 -13c, Diff -$3.44 +1c
USNG (Sep) $3.25 +5c, UKNG (Sep) 108.8p +1.99p, TTF (Sep) €45.89 +€0.945

Oil price

Oil is up around a dollar this morning as reports of an Iranian missile attack on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz caused a slight stir but with tanker traffic still increasing prices are still low by recent standards.

I remain of the view that the market is pricing in a peace deal and not a ceasefire and whilst markets are definitely upbeat the fat lady has not yet cleared her throat. But, Opec+ announced at the weekend that it was upping quotas by 188/- b/d and Aramco is cutting forward prices. And the Baker Hughes rig count continues to rise, last week overall numbers were up by 7 units to 580 and oil rigs rose by 5 to 445, up 20 on this time last year…

Afentra

Afentra has provided an operational and financial trading update for the six months ended 30 June 2026.

Key Highlights

  • Strategic Review: Afentra to pursue next phase of growth as an independent E&P company
  • Refinancing: cost of capital reduced significantly with completion of $125m Gunvor prepayment facility
  • Equity Raise: completed heavily oversubscribed US$40m placing and £2m retail offer at 67p/share
  • Etu Acquisition: expected to complete in Q3 2026, increasing equity interests in Blocks 3/05 & 3/05A
  • Block 3/05 Drilling:  Pacassa SW drilling underway with results expected late July
  • Kwanza Onshore: eFTG survey completed; KON4 licence awarded
  • H1 2026 Net Average Production: 5,777 bopd
  • Crude Oil Sales & Revenue: two liftings totalling ~1.0 mmbbls at an average $91.3/bbl, generating $91.0 million
  • Financial Position: Cash of $97.4 million, Net cash of $28.4 million at 30 June 2026 

Operational & Corporate Overview

Strategic Review

Following a comprehensive strategic review, initiated in January and announced in March 2026, where the Board of Afentra considered a number of strategic options, including offers for the company, the Board determined that pursuing the next phase of growth as an independent E&P company offers the greatest opportunity to maximise shareholder value.

Block 3/05 & 5A Asset performance      

Production  

  • Gross average production for the six months ended June 2026 was 19,379 bopd (Net: Block 3/05 5,688 bopd; Block 3/05A 90 bopd). Production was impacted by downtime associated with the positioning of the Borr Grid drilling unit over the Pacassa platform and a planned shutdown of the gas compression system to improve gas distribution.
  • Production, water injection and gas compression has since been fully restored. Asset uptime remained stable throughout the period, supported by continued progress across the asset revamping and integrity workstreams.

2026 infill drilling and workover programme

  • Drilling of Pacassa SW well is progressing, rig performance has improved with the reservoir section now expected to be drilled in the coming weeks and initial well results are anticipated in late July.
  • The second well in the programme is expected to be the Impala-2 development well.
  • The two well programme will be financed by Sonangol, with costs recovered from future well incremental production revenues and is therefore not expected to impact the Company’s 2026 cash capex.
  • Programme targets a potential gross production uplift of ~9,000 bopd and gross recoverable resources of over 100mmbo.
  • Hydraulic workover programme preparations are ongoing with execution planned for late 2026/27.

Revamping & Integrity

Multi-year redevelopment plan remains on track underpinning increased reserves recovery and production growth. Key workstreams during the period include:

  • Water injection averaged ~45,000 bwpd during the period, with rates of up to 70,000 bwpd achieved. Focus on increasing sustained water injection rates continues, targeting rates of ~100,000 bwpd in H2 2026
  • Infrastructure upgrades supporting improved reliability and operational performance progressed across key platforms, with work now completed at Pambi platform and ongoing at Cobo and Palanca platforms.
  • Palanca FSO works completed and formal recertification received for a further five-year period.
  • Well intervention activities continue across the asset, comprising slickline, electric line and acid stimulation programmes, focused on optimising production and improving well performance.

Block 3/24

  • Operational activities in support of the GPQ development progressed during the period, including the planning of a survey vessel programme to perform a wellhead inspection that will commence in July.
  • Subsurface work continues to assess the full extent of the hydrocarbon discoveries and exploration potential within the Block

Onshore Kwanza basin

  • KON4 license, which contains the large pre-maturely abandoned Quenguela Norte oil field in addition to significant exploration potential, was formally awarded and signed.
  • Acquisition of the eFTG geophysical survey data was completed across all of the licensed areas with initial results being interpreted and integrated with existing datasets.
  • Technical studies progressing towards assembling a full prospect inventory and planning for future 2D seismic acquisition. It is anticipated that 2D seismic acquisition will start in KON15 in H2 2026.

Portfolio expansion

  • Etu transaction: Afentra will acquire an additional 3.33% in Block 3/05 and 3.66% in Block 3/05A following the decision by Sonangol to participate alongside Afentra and M&P in this transaction. The transaction continues to progress through the remaining customary conditions precedent, including government approval in Angola, with completion now expected in Q3 2026.

Financial Overview

Key Financials as at and for six months ended 30 June 2026

  • Revenue of $91.0 million
  • Cash resources of $97.4 million
  • Gunvor Facility drawn: $70 million
  • Net cash of $28.4 million

Refinancing – Gunvor Facility

  • Successfully completed the refinancing of the Company’s debt facilities in May 2026 through a new $125 million Gunvor Prepayment Facility, replacing the previous Reserve Based Lending and Working Capital Facilities.
  • The new facility enhances funding flexibility, lowers the Company’s cost of capital and supports the Company’s investment programme.
  • The first $70 million tranche has been drawn, with a further $30 million available to be drawn in 2026 and an additional $25 million available in H2 2027, subject to delivery of 1.8mmbbls in first 12 months of the facility and certain production hurdles.

Equity Fundraising

  • Successfully completed an oversubscribed equity fundraising, raising US$40 million through a placing at 67 pence per share, together with a £2.0 million WRAP Retail Offer.
  • The proceeds strengthen the Company’s balance sheet and support the acceleration of its investment programme.

Crude Oil Sales

  • Two liftings of 997,252 bbls at average price of $91.3/bbl sold, generating revenue of $91.0 million.
  • Three additional liftings of ~450,000 bbls each anticipated in the remainder of 2026 with the next lifting planned for July.

Hedging

  • Approximately 53% of the projected July sales are currently hedged.
  • Approximately 37% of the remaining projected H2 2026 sales and 20% of projected H1 2027 sales are currently hedged.
  • Hedges are predominantly structured as collars, with floor prices ranging from $60/bbl to $72.50/bbl and collar caps ranging from $78/bbl to $115/bbl.

Near-Term Catalysts

  • Completion of the Pacassa SW well and initial drilling results (late July)
  • Commencement of the second infill well, expected to be the Impala-2 development well
  • Completion of the Etu transaction (Q3 2026)
  • Update on the redevelopment of the Quenguela Norte field.
  • Update on the assessment of the exploration potential across the Kwanza Onshore portfolio.
  • HY 2026 Results (first half of September)

Paul McDade, Chief Executive Officer, Afentra plc commented:
“The first half of 2026 has been a period of significant progress across every dimension of our business. We concluded our strategic review with a clear determination that pursuing Afentra’s next phase of growth as an independent E&P company represents the most compelling path to shareholder value creation. We have backed that conviction with decisive action: completing an oversubscribed equity fundraising raising, refinancing our debt facilities at a lower cost of capital, and with the commencement of the first drilling campaign on Block 3/05 in over a decade. As we await the results of the Pacassa SW well, with Impala-2 expected to be the second well in this carried programme, we have a busy period of activity ahead, including the expected completion of the Etu acquisition to increase our equity interests in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A, continued Block 3/05 revamping and integrity works and the anticipated commencement of 2D seismic acquisition in KON15. Across our offshore and onshore portfolio, we have multiple pathways to deliver the production and reserves growth we have been building towards, and I look forward to updating shareholders on our progress going forward.”

This is an upbeat operating and financial trading update to the end of June from Afentra as I would expect given recent announcements. Production was good, a slight dip but only due to operational drilling operations and already back up to speed whilst cash was $97.4m with net of $28.4m.

In the last few months Afentra has ticked a number of important boxes, it completed its strategic review and as a result decided to remain being an independent E&P company partly as any potential bids did not reflect over $100 oil I suspect.

It also ticked the refinancing box with a $125m Gunvor facility of which $70m has so far been drawn and for good measure had an equity raise. The oversubscribed $40m placing and a £2m retail offer were completed at 67p but nicely at the top of the market and the Etu deal is expected to complete in 3Q 2026. 

Elsewhere drilling is underway at block 3/05 with results expected later this month and the KON4 licence was awarded with data already being accumulating ahead of 2D seismic planned at kON15. This means that there is plenty of activity and I expect lots of newsflow across the portfolio in coming months.

Afentra has been a favourite stock in the sector for a long time and was an inaugural member of the Bucket List where it remains and surely will do in the upcoming interim review. The shares are looking attractive at 59p this morning compared with my 100p target price, being down some 20% over a month is a clear opportunity as the +45% over six months and the 26% rise year on year show that longer term it remains an attractive play with much news to come. 

Supporting presentation:

A supporting presentation has been uploaded to Afentra’s website: Investor Presentation July Trading Update

Genel Energy

Genel Energy Finance 4 plc has successfully placed USD 35 million through a tap issue under the outstanding senior unsecured bonds (ISIN NO 0013512384). The additional bonds were placed at price of 104% of nominal amount and received strong interest from a wide set of new and existing investors. The purpose of the tap issue is for general corporate purposes. Total outstanding bonds will be USD 135 million following settlement of the tap issue. Pareto Securities AS acted as Manager and Bookrunner.

Nothing to add here, this came out last week but just completes the initial news that Genel was planning to place the bonds for general corporate purposes.

Seascape Energy Asia

Seascape has been informed that its Executive Chairman, James Menzies, will be taking a medical leave-of-absence for an initial three-month period following a cycling accident.

Geraldine Murphy, currently Senior Independent Director, has been appointed Interim Non-Executive Chair with immediate effect. There are no other changes to board roles at this time.

Geraldine has over 35 years of energy investment banking and M&A experience in senior roles at Standard Chartered Bank, Harrison Lovegrove, CIBC and Perella Weinberg Partners. Geraldine joined the Seascape board in June 2024 and has been instrumental in the transformational pivot of the Company to Southeast Asia and subsequent growth initiatives.

In addition to her role at Seascape, Geraldine is also an Independent Non-Executive Director at Ithaca Energy plc, a FTSE 250 E&P business focused on the UK Continental Shelf. Geraldine holds a BSc (Hons) degree in Geology and a MSc in Petroleum Geology from University College Dublin.

Geraldine Murphy, Interim Non-Executive Chair, commented:
“Our thoughts are with James and his family and we wish him a full and speedy recovery. I look forward to continuing to work closely with the Seascape executive team to deliver the significant value in our Malaysian portfolio recently highlighted at our AGM.”

I am very sad to hear this news and I want to wish James a full recovery and for his family as they cope with his injury, my best wishes all round. 

I know that Nick and the executive team are an excellent unit and will be able to continue the good work that they have all done since Seascape was created. I also know Geraldine Murphy and she will also do an excellent job as she stands in for James. My very best wishes to them all. 

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog 

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