Provaris continues to see strengthening fundamentals for the development of RFNBO‑compliant hydrogen supply chains from Norway into Germany, underpinned by recent market feedback from European utilities and evolving policy frameworks across Germany and the European Union.

Clear demand outlook for RFNBO hydrogen into Germany

Germany remains Europe’s largest energy market and a priority destination for renewable hydrogen imports. Recent engagement with German utilities reinforces the clear potential for RFNBO‑compliant hydrogen imports from Norway into Germany from around 2030, with Northern German ports viewed as logical entry points into existing and planned hydrogen infrastructure.

Importantly, the market outlook in Germany has continued to improve, driven by stronger regulatory clarity and demand‑side incentives. Enhancements to Germany’s greenhouse gas (GHG) quota framework materially strengthen long‑term demand expectations for renewable fuels of non‑biological origin, including RFNBO hydrogen and its derivatives. This provides a more robust and visible sales outlook for future hydrogen imports over the coming decades.

The three key industry sectors where GHG quota directly applies:

• Transport: road transport, aviation, shipping, with RFNBO quotas ~5% by mid-2030s and 8-10% by 2040.
• Refining and Fuel Production in Germany with green H2 to replace existing grey H2 in the refining process, creates early, industrial‑scale hydrogen demand.
• Industry which includes Steel, Cement, Metal Refining, with Germany requiring 42% of hydrogen used in industry is RFNBO by 2030.

The key takeaway… “Germany’s GHG quota creates a legally enforced demand floor for RFNBO hydrogen in the transport and fuel supply sectors, with industry demand layered on top via support mechanisms rather than penalties.”

Supportive European policy signals

At the European level, recent initiatives from the European Commission, including programmes such as AccelerateEU, are being viewed positively by market participants. These initiatives signal ongoing political and regulatory support for the scaling of RFNBO production, helping to reduce supply‑side risk and improve the overall investment environment for cross‑border hydrogen value chains.

Together, these German and EU‑wide policy developments are contributing to greater confidence across the hydrogen supply chain, from upstream production in Norway through to offtake and distribution in Germany.

Relevance for Provaris’ compressed hydrogen solution

This evolving policy and market backdrop aligns closely with Provaris’ strategy to enable simple, scalable and energy‑efficient hydrogen transport using compressed hydrogen shipping. The ability to deliver gaseous hydrogen directly—without the need for conversion to derivatives and reconversion at import—continues to resonate with European utilities seeking flexible, RFNBO‑compliant import solutions, particularly for early to mid‑scale volumes.

Germany’s hydrogen infrastructure commitment

Germany’s demand‑side policy framework is being complemented by a significant, long‑term commitment to hydrogen infrastructure, reinforcing the country’s transition toward a hydrogen‑ready economy.

In October 2024, Germany approved the development of a nationwide hydrogen core network comprising approximately 9,040 kilometres of pipelines, connecting industrial centres, storage facilities, power plants and key import corridors. Around 60% of the network will be created through the conversion of existing natural gas pipelines, enabling faster deployment and lower overall costs. Total investment for the network is estimated at approximately €18.9 billion, with the core network targeted for full integration by 2032.

Provaris continues to meet with TSOs associated with the rollout of the core network with early sections of the work to be operational from 2025, and further expansion 2026-27; connecting ports to anchor corridors feeding industrial clusters across Germany.

Ongoing engagement and next steps

Against this improving backdrop, Provaris is continuing discussions with European utilities and supply‑side stakeholders to further assess project timing, infrastructure integration and upstream development opportunities in Norway. Follow‑up technical and commercial discussions are anticipated after the northern hemisphere summer period, including potential site visits to Norwegian production locations.

Provaris remains focused on advancing its hydrogen shipping and storage solutions to support investment decisions aligned with Europe’s 2030 energy transition objectives. Now we are past the ‘hype’ stage of sector develop, the reality of industrial scale-up of demand means that import demand is back on the agenda.

KeyFacts Energy: Hydrogen news