Gayle Meikle, CEO, Frontier Energy Network

At our recent Frontier’s Upstream Insights discussion titled "New Frontiers: The Next Guyana", we set out to examine one of the most important questions in global exploration today: where will the next major frontier success come from? Joined by an expert panel I thought it worth sharing the insights gleaned. With full credits and thanks to Aatisha Mahajan, Vice President Exploration, Rystad Energy, Simon Molyneux, Advisor to the Energy Industry | Managing Director & CEO at Molyneux Advisors, Andres Mesa, Business Development | Merging Geoscience & Investment Strategy | Latam, Holt Energy Advisors, Amalia Olivera-Riley, Executive VP, Capability Development, Leadership, Transformation, SP500 Oil and Gas, Subsurface Consultants & Associates, LLC (SCA) and our moderator Daniel Davidson.

The prompt came from a moment at our World Energies Summit, when ExxonMobil’s John Ardill was asked a deceptively simple question: where is the next Guyana? It struck a nerve because it goes to the heart of what the industry is wrestling with as reserve replacement and new supply comes even more into the fore. Governments want energy security. Investors want returns and yet frontier exploration continues to operate under significant constraint. This tension defined our discussion.

“We’re not going back to 2012. The world has changed - and exploration has to work within that reality.” - Amalia Oliveira Riley

Opportunity Is Back With Much Tighter Constraints

My own view remains that this is a moment of opportunity under constraint. The appetite to talk seriously about frontier has returned. The logic for exploration is clearer again but the conditions are very different from the last major cycle. There is less tolerance for wasted capital, fewer independents able to take big risks, tighter internal screening, and a much sharper focus on above-ground certainty. No one is returning to 2012. The industry has moved on, and frontier exploration will need to succeed within a more disciplined, more selective model. This was reflected clearly across the panel.

“The mood is selectively optimistic - the potential is there, but conviction is shaped by geopolitics and capital discipline.” - Atisha Maharaj

“The sentiment has changed. People are willing to look - and willing to start taking bets.” - Simon Molyneux

“It’s baby steps. There is appetite, but still a lot of caution.” - Andrés Meza

Amalia added an important operational lens:

“There’s very little tolerance for bad decisions - and they are very costly.”

The conclusion is that the return is not a broad one, but more disciplined.

Frontier Under Capital As Well As Execution Pressure

That last point matters. Exploration has not just become a capital allocation issue. It has become an execution issue too. The industry today is dealing with the cumulative effects of several shocks: the 2014 downturn, the Covid years, and now geopolitical instability layered over inflation, energy security concerns and portfolio discipline. Exploration has, in many organisations, been the first function pushed into the background and skills and portfolio focus have suffered. Yet at the same time, the pressure to replace reserves has not disappeared. In fact, it is becoming harder to ignore and we can feel the conversation moving. The industry is operating with:

• Leaner teams
• Reduced institutional memory
• Fewer wells and fewer repetitions

“People with ten or fifteen years’ experience simply haven’t had the same number of repetitions.” - Amalia Oliveira Riley

Money Is Cautious, Not Absent

The panel was clear that while there is interest, capital is not flowing freely into frontier. Most available funding still favours producing assets, faster-cycle returns and lower-risk opportunities. Public market appetite for high-risk exploration is far below where it once was, and much of the capital now shaping the upstream space is structurally more impatient. These dynamics change decisions and what gets sanctioned.

“There is no money for it - or it’s very hard to get. Investors want quick returns and production first.” - Andrés Meza

At the same time, there are two obvious pools of capital with a strategic reason to engage: national oil companies focused on energy security, and large IOCs that understand that failing to replace reserves is not a viable long-term strategy.

“Not replacing reserves is not an option for the majors.” - Panel takeaway

In that sense, the return of frontier may not be broad-based, but it does appear to be happening.

Why Independents Still Matter, The Missing Middle

A particularly important part of the discussion focused on the disappearance, or at least the reduction, of the smaller independents that once played such an important role in opening new basins and regions.

“We’ve lost some of the risk-tolerant capital that allowed companies to innovate.” - Simon Molyneux

I continue to believe this is a real issue for the sector. Independents have historically brought creativity, agility, relationship depth and a willingness to move before consensus forms.

“It’s not ideal to see fewer independents. They are critical - they bring relationships and creativity the majors don’t.” - Gayle Meikle

Namibia is an obvious reminder of how valuable that can be. If we want a healthier frontier ecosystem, the industry needs to think harder about how capital, governments, NOCs and larger companies can work together to recreate some of that entrepreneurial edge.

Data Remains One Of The Biggest Unlocks

The question of data also came through strongly. If countries want to attract frontier capital, access to good subsurface data remains one of the most effective ways to reduce early-stage risk and sharpen outcomes of frontier exploration.

“Good data and a little bit of creative thinking can unlock a basin.” - Amalia Oliveira Riley

There was a strong consensus that governments have an important role to play here - not by undermining the commercial role of data companies, but by organising and making legacy data more accessible, investing in pre-competitive datasets, improving and investing in their own basin studies, and presenting opportunities in a more coherent and investor-ready way for anyone who wants to evaluate what is on offer.

Governments Are Not Just Hosts, They Are Competitors

This all led naturally to the role of government more broadly. In my view, the countries that are winning attention are not always the ones with the best geology on paper. They are often the ones that listen, respond and create confidence for partners.

“Investors will go where their money goes further, with more certainty.” - Amalia Oliveira Riley

The differentiators are increasingly clear:

• Regulatory clarity
• Speed of approvals
• Fiscal competitiveness
• Institutional alignment

Angola is the strongest African example of this at present.

“They listen and respond - and that’s why they’re winning attention.” - Gayle Meikle

But the wider lesson is that governments are competing with one another for scarce capital. Investors are not short of basin options. They are short of patience.

Geopolitics Is Reopening The Frontier Map

The geopolitical layer added another dimension to the discussion. Europe’s reappraisal of energy security following the Russia-Ukraine war, and the wider instability now affecting global markets, is causing companies and governments alike to think much more seriously about diversification of supply.

“Alternate basins are becoming critical as countries prioritise energy security.” - Atisha Maharaj

In some cases, it is prompting companies to re-enter countries they know well but had deprioritised and in others, it is creating momentum behind basins that had long sat outside the mainstream conversation or portfolio focus.

The Basin Race Is Wide Open

On the basin discussion itself, there was no shortage of conviction. Across the panel, strong cases were made for a wide distribution of opportunities; Pelotas, the Equatorial Margin in Brazil, offshore Trinidad and Venezuela, the Gulf of Papua, Indonesia, Argentina offshore, the transform margin of West Africa, Liberia, Sierra Leone, Côte d’Ivoire, the Walvis and Namib plays, Libya offshore, Sri Lanka, the Red Sea and Andaman offshore India. It is important to note that this is not an exhaustive list and many others are being worked and explored.

“There is immense potential - but every basin is competing for limited capital.” - Panel takeaway

That diversity in itself tells an important story: there is no lack of geological opportunity. The challenge is not whether prospectivity exists but rather the challenge is where capital, confidence and conditions are attractive enough as a whole for that potential to be pursued.

What This Means For Industry Leaders

If I take a step back, my own conclusions are straightforward from the discussion. First, frontier exploration is back on the cards with new momentum but it will not return in some indiscriminate, free-spending form.

Second, above-ground factors are becoming even more crucial. Good rocks and geology are not enough. Countries that want to win must present a serious, investable proposition.

Third, the competitive set is now a truly global picture. This is why we have these conversations in London. Investors are comparing Africa with Latin America, the Mediterranean with Asia-Pacific, legacy basins with frontier acreage. Every basin is competing for the same limited pool of attention and capital now.

And finally, the industry still needs some imagination.

“What’s missing is innovative thinking - doing things differently to unlock capital.” - Gayle Meikle

Final Thought

There is still enormous prize value out there. The next Guyana may not look exactly like Guyana and it may emerge through a different capital structure, a different operator profile, a different government model, or a different pace of de-risking. But the search for it is very much alive.

“People are willing to look again. People are willing to take bets.” - Simon Molyneux

This is one of the most important conversations in upstream right now.

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Frontier

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