WTI (Apr) $96.32 +11c, Brent (May) $107.38 +$3.96, Diff -$11.06 +$3.85
USNG (Apr) $3.17 +5c, UKNG (Apr) 178.0p +48.25p, TTF (Apr) €66.85 +€15.99

Oil price

Oil has risen again today after yesterdays attack by Israel on South Pars was responded to by Iran attacking Ras Laffan. Brent is $112.99 and WTI 98 as I write, the differential is now $15…Over night the UK and Dutch natural gas prices rose sharply, see above, some 37% for UKNG and 31% for TTF.

Don’t worry about the inventory stats they are not that important right now but the US retail gasoline prices will be interesting…

Angus Energy

Angus has updated on Financial Restructuring and Suspension of Trading on AIM.

Finance Update

The Company is pleased to announce that it has reached agreement on the key terms to restructure its debt obligations with its three principal creditor groups, namely Trafigura, the Overriding Royalty Interest (“ORRI”) holders, and Forum Energy Services Ltd (“Forum”). This comprehensive restructuring, when completed, will represent a major milestone for the business, demonstrating strong stakeholder support and providing a clear, sustainable financial platform for the Company’s next phase of development.

The parties will now move into the legally binding documentation phase, with the Company aiming to finalise and execute the necessary detailed agreements over the coming weeks. The Company will update the market and provide further details once definitive agreements have been signed and will be sending a circular to shareholders to approve the plans at that time.

The proposed terms, once approved, will materially strengthen the balance sheet, improve the Company’s liquidity, and create a more sustainable long-term capital structure.

In the meantime, the Board continues to prudently manage working capital in close coordination with its lenders.

Suspension of Trading on AIM 

Trading in the Company’s shares on AIM will remain suspended pending the conclusion of its financial restructuring.

The Board remains fully committed to delivering a sustainable, value-driven strategy for the Company and looks forward to updating shareholders further as this transformative restructuring progresses.

Carlos Fernandes, Finance Director comments:
“We are pleased to have reached agreement, in principle, on the key terms for this proposed restructuring. While further work remains to finalise the detailed documentation with the applicable parties, the progress to date reflects the constructive engagement of our key stakeholders and their continued support for the Company. We look forward to completing the documentation process in the coming weeks and continuing to focus on building long-term value for shareholders.”

Good news for shareholders today who will want to see the shares re-listed as soon as possible, one can understand it has to wait for the details to be published and one hopes that the board has defended their interests against powerful creditor groups.

However they should be cheered by the company saying that ‘once approved, will materially strengthen the balance sheet, improve the Company’s liquidity, and create a more sustainable long-term capital structure’.

Corcel Energy

Corcel has announced that it has  raised £3.6 million through a  subscription with a number of its existing strategic investors . The subscription was undertaken after these  shareholders approached the Company to increase their investment at the current market price.  The new ordinary shares have been issued at £0.004 per share, in line with the Company’s 15-day volume-weighted average price.

Following the successful completion of the high‑quality 2D seismic programme on KON‑16 in February, Corcel is now advancing into the planning and preparation phase for drilling its first pre‑salt and post‑salt exploration well on the block. The additional capital will enable the Company to accelerate key workstreams, including the procurement of critical long‑lead items and the early securing of a drilling rig. By locking in these items ahead of the wider market, Corcel strengthens its operational timetable, reduces exposure to supply‑chain bottlenecks, and positions itself to commence drilling within the next 12 months. This proactive approach also enhances the Company’s strategic position as it progresses farm‑down discussions, demonstrating clear operational momentum and reducing execution risk for potential partners.

This investment represents a strong endorsement of Corcel’s strategy to build a leading onshore upstream company across Angola, Brazil, and other priority jurisdictions through disciplined organic and inorganic growth. It also serves as a highly complementary follow‑on to the £3 million raised in December 2025 and the Company is now well-positioned to accelerate its dual‑track growth plan: advancing preparations for the KON‑16 high-impact exploration well while simultaneously progressing the acquisition of a producing asset and expanding its acreage position across the onshore Kwanza Basin. Together, these financings strengthen Corcel’s balance sheet, enhance its strategic flexibility, and reinforce the Company’s ability to execute value‑accretive transactions at pace.

Scott Gilbert, Corcel’s CEO, commented: 
“In line with our disciplined approach of funding the Company at key milestones, following a very successful 2D seismic campaign in KON-16, we are delighted to secure this additional strategic investment in Corcel from existing shareholders at the current market price. This provides us with additional balance sheet strength as we head towards the drilling of our first well on KON-16.  We continue to maintain a methodical approach to capital allocation, ensuring that any transaction we pursue is highly value-accretive and strengthens the Company over the long term, delivering sustainable value for our shareholders”

It’s always good when key shareholders approach the management asking to invest more money and it speaks volumes about the respect that Scott Gilbert, Geraldine Geraldo and their team are held in as well as the asset base that they have built up in such a short time.

The raise, £3.6m at a nil discount price of 0.4p per share along with a warrant exercisable at 0.7p which also carries an accelerator at the company’s discretion. It adds significant optionality, particularly should there be an extension of the drilling programme after the imminent KON-16 exploration well. 

The reason for this raise is for that programme and will contribute to the long-lead items and of course rig procurement. It makes the company incredibly financially robust and with a strong balance sheet which gives scope for further M&A and the ability for Corcel to tighten its grip onshore Angola where it will end up dominating areas such as KON-11 and KON-12. 

It is quite difficult to realise what the journey that Corcel has been and in such a short time. It has created an excellent platform for growth and assembled a fine list of shareholders keen to back the company ahead of any needed funding which gives the company that optionality I was talking about. Right now it’s all about that and fire power that it has built up, Corcel went straight into the Bucket list and has fully justified its presence, over 1 month it’s up 25%, over 6 it’s 19% and y/y up 132%. My TP remains at 2p which I am totally comfortable with.

Fundraising

In the fundraising, which was conducted by Auctus Advisors LLP, the Company will issue 950,000,000 new ordinary shares of £0.0001 each (“Placing Shares”) at a price of £0.004 per share to raise £3.6 million before expenses.

Investors will receive one warrant for each Placing Share subscribed in the fundraising (a “Warrant”).  Each Warrant will enable the holder to subscribe for one new ordinary share in the Company at a price of £0.007 for a period expiring on 31 December 2027.  An accelerator clause will apply to the Warrants, such that if the daily volume weighted average price of the Company’s ordinary shares on AIM is equal to or exceeds £0.0085 for a period of 25 consecutive trading days, then the Company shall have the right, but not the obligation, to give notice to the warrant holders that the Warrants must then be exercised within a further 30-day calendar period.

Afentra

Afentra has provided an update on the previously announced Sale and Purchase Agreement signed with Etu Energias S.A. regarding its interests in Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A, offshore Angola.

As part of the transaction process, Sonangol E&P, the operator of both blocks, has elected to participate in the acquisition of Etu’s interests. Following this development, Sonangol, Afentra and Etablissements Maurel & Prom S.A. will jointly acquire Etu’s 10% interest in Block 3/05 and 13.33% interest in Block 3/05A offshore Angola.

As a result of Sonangol’s participation in the transaction, Afentra (Angola) Ltd has signed a new SPA with Etu to acquire a 3.33% interest in Block 3/05 and a 3.66% interest in Block 3/05A. Completion of the transaction remains subject to customary conditions precedent, including government approval in Angola. The previously announced SPA signed with Etu has been terminated.

Updated Transaction Highlights

• Acquisition of additional interests; 3.33% net in Block 3/05 and 3.66% net in Block 3/05A, offshore Angola.
• Net upfront consideration of US$15.2 million.
• Contingent consideration of up to US$6.74 million across both blocks, linked to a combination of oil price thresholds, production performance, and the successful development of key discoveries.
• Effective date of the transaction is 31 December 2023. 

A short supporting presentation has been uploaded to the Afentra website: Etu Transaction Update – Sonangol Joins Acquisition Presentation

The decision by Sonangol E&P, who as national oil company have full pre-emption rights, to jointly acquire Etu’s interests alongside Afentra and M&P demonstrates the desire by all parties to build on the strong collaborative partnership that has been formed in Block 3/05 and 3/05A. The partnership, led by Sonangol as Operator of the assets, will continue to invest in the ongoing redevelopment programme that is beginning to unlock the full potential of the assets which will lead to sustained increases in both production and reserves over the coming years.  

Afentra continues to pursue its disciplined approach to value creation, leveraging success-based transaction structures and a strong local partnership framework. The Company remains confident in the significant upside potential of Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A and looks forward to continued constructive engagement with all stakeholders.

Paul McDade, Chief Executive Officer of Afentra plc, commented:
“The evolution of the transaction structure to include Sonangol in the Etu acquisition is a welcome development and is a clear demonstration of the collaborative approach that has been achieved within the partnership. The joint acquisition further consolidates and aligns all parties as we work together to unlock the full potential of Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A. This transaction exemplifies Afentra’s disciplined strategy of building a high-quality, cash-generative asset base in Africa in close partnership with host governments and local operators.”

Confirmation today that Afentra is doing another smart deal and in this case including Sonangol in the process and cannily cements their relationship in the partner group. Acquiring an additional stake in blocks 3/05 and 3/05A is never wrong and taking even a little of the Etu 10% stake is great news. As before the effective date  is back dated so lump sums just won’t happen and the outcome good for all the partners. 

There is plenty of upside here, the drilling programme will increase production and the reserve base obviously climb, Afentra has again proved that Paul McDade and team are amongst the best in the business and this has proved that again. 

Afentra has been a member of the Bucket List for as long as I can remember and acquitted itself with honour, it is up by 33% on 1 month, 50% on 6 months and 80% y/y, my target price is 100p and looks a bit on the low side, it may need tweaking before long…

Following completion of the acquisitions by Afentra, M&P and Sonangol from Etu, the joint venture partners across both Blocks 3/05 and 3/05A will be comprised as follows:

Next Steps

Completion of the Etu acquisition remains subject to customary conditions precedent, including government approvals in Angola and finalisation of definitive documentation. The Company expects completion in Q2 2026 and will provide further updates in due course.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Gulf Keystone has announced its results for the full year ended 31 December 2025.

Jon Harris, Gulf Keystone’s Chief Executive Officer, said:
“We delivered a strong operational and financial performance in 2025 in line with guidance and another year of zero Lost Time Incidents. Free cash flow generation enabled the continued execution of our strategy as we balanced investments in production enhancing projects with $50 million of dividends. Kurdistan pipeline exports restarted in September 2025, representing a significant milestone for the Company and broader industry.

We started 2026 positively, with production increasing above 44,000 bopd towards the end of February and consistent export payments generating cash flow. We have also been making good progress towards a return to international prices, with lower discounts to Brent visible in 2025 export invoices.

Since the outbreak of the regional conflict, we have shut-in the Shaikan Field as a precaution and taken measures to protect staff. We have also suspended 2026 guidance until production restarts. We are hopeful that the security situation will stabilise soon and we are ready to quickly restart production and exports once it is safe to do so. We are in a strong position to navigate the disruptions, with a robust, debt-free balance sheet and significant flexibility to reduce expenditures.

Following careful consideration of these factors and the current outlook, the Board has approved the declaration of a $12.5 million interim dividend. I would like to thank all of GKP’s staff, shareholders and broader stakeholder base for their continued support at this challenging time.”

GKP results were in-line with guidance and despite the current shut-in the board are confident enough to pay a 0.0575p a share dividend. Indications are that the current payment system is working and that there is a better sight of payments this time although I am yet to be convinced on the potential receivables accumulating. 

Guidance is suspended until production restarts but the company is debt free and the balance sheet very strong, hence the divvi decision and the company does have ‘flexibility to reduce expenditures’.

Highlights to 31 December 2025 and post reporting period

Operational

• Strong operational delivery in 2025:
  • Gross average production of 41,560 bopd, up 2% relative to the prior year (2024: 40,689 bopd) and towards the top end of tightened 40,000 – 42,000 bopd guidance range
  • Successful transition from trucking sales to pipeline exports via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline (“ITP”) on 27 September 2025
  • Sanction of water handling facilities at PF-2 to unlock future production growth and reduce reservoir risk
  • Safe operations, with zero Lost Time Incidents for over three years despite busy work programme and security disruptions
• Gross average production of c.41,300 bopd in 2026 year to 28 February:
  • Gross average production had increased above 44,000 bopd towards the end of February 2026 reflecting the successful completion of well workovers and interventions
• On 28 February 2026, the Shaikan Field was shut in as a safety precaution following the strikes by the US and Israel on Iran and the subsequent retaliatory strikes in the Middle East, including in Kurdistan
  • Gross average production of c.32,100 bopd in 2026 year to 17 March, with estimated annualised losses to date from the shut-in of approximately 840 bopd a week
  • The Company is ready to restart production and exports quickly with an improvement in the security environment

Shaikan Field estimated reserves

• The Company estimates gross 2P reserves of 416 MMstb as at 31 December 2025 (31 December 2024 internal estimate: 443 MMstb)
  • Reduction relative to prior year reflects gross production of 15 MMstb in 2025 and minor revisions of 12 MMstb

Financial

• Strong financial performance, with disciplined investment in production enhancing projects, strict cost control and free cash flow generation underpinning shareholder distributions
• Revenue based on sales invoices, a non-IFRS measure, increased 28% to $193.1 million (2024 revenue: $151.2 million), reflecting the production increase and average realised price of $33.9/bbl (2024: $26.8/bbl)
  • Average realised price of $50.5/bbl for 2025 exports sales, a significant improvement on the price achieved from 2025 local sales of $27.6/bbl and representing a $13.4/bbl discount to Dated Brent
  • Cash receipts for 2025 exports sales equated to $30/bbl as per the interim exports agreements
• Adjusted EBITDA up 46% to $111.4 million in 2025 (2024: $76.1 million), driven by resilient production, cost control in line with guidance and the sharp increase in realised prices visible in exports sales invoices
  • Stable gross Opex per barrel of $4.3/bbl relative to prior year (2024: $4.4/bbl), with 18% reduction in other G&A expenses to $9.3 million (2024: $11.4 million)
• Net capital expenditure of $38.8 million (2024: $18.3 million), in line with guidance and reflecting investment in PF-2 safety upgrades, well workovers and initial expenditure on PF-2 water handling installation
• Free cash flow of $29.1 million (2024: $65.4 million), with the increase in Adjusted EBITDA offset by incremental net capex and a working capital outflow related to 2025 exports sales receivables
  • 2025 exports sales receivables reflect the timing difference of around two months between production and payment and the differential between invoiced realised prices and cash receipts of $30/bbl
  • The amounts receivable at the year-end related to the timing difference of exports sales have since been collected as expected in 2026
• $50 million returned to shareholders in 2025 through semi-annual dividend payments in April and September
• 2025 year-end cash balance of $78.2 million (31 December 2024: $102.3 million) and no debt
  • Cash balance as at 18 March 2026 of $89.1 million reflecting consistent payments for exports sales in the year to date

Dual listing on Euronext Growth Oslo

• On 18 February 2026, the Company’s shares began trading on Euronext Growth Oslo operated by the Oslo Stock Exchange (“OSE”)
• Arrangements are being progressed to enable cross-border transfers of the Company’s shares between Euronext Growth Oslo and the London Stock Exchange (“LSE”) on or around 1 April 2026

Outlook

• Considering the deterioration of the regional security environment and the production shut-in, the Company has placed under review its previous 2026 gross average production guidance of 37,000 – 41,000 bopd
• The Company has also suspended its previous 2026 net capex, net operating costs and other G&A expenses guidance (respectively $40-$50 million, $55-$60 million and less than $10 million)
• The Company retains a robust balance sheet and significant flexibility to reduce its work programme and cost base if the production shut-in persists
• The current interim exports agreements, which expire on 31 March 2026, are expected to be extended while a review by an international independent consultant of exports invoices and contractual costs progresses
  • On completion of the review, the Company anticipates a reconciliation to full PSC entitlement at international prices, both for future sales and volumes sold under the interim agreements, as well as the negotiation of longer-term exports agreements
• The Company continues to progress its negotiations with the Kurdistan Regional Government (“KRG”) regarding a number of historical Shaikan commercial matters, including the settlement of past oil sales arrears and other KRG-related assets and liabilities

Shareholder distributions

• Gulf Keystone remains committed to distributing excess cash to shareholders according to its established approach to shareholder returns:
  • The Board reviews the Company’s capacity to pay a dividend on a semi-annual basis, considering the liquidity needs of the business and the operating environment and
  • share buybacks are considered opportunistically throughout the year
• Consistent payments for export sales have continued in 2026 to date, demonstrating the viability of the new export arrangements and generating positive cash flow. However, the recent deterioration in the regional security environment has impacted production and the Shaikan Field remains shut-in as a precautionary measure
• The Board has carefully considered these factors, the current security outlook, the Company’s debt-free balance sheet and ability to reduce capex and costs. Consequently, it has decided to declare an interim dividend of $12.5 million, equivalent to $0.0575 per Common Share
  • The dividend will be paid on 27 April 2026, based on a record date of 10 April 2026 and ex-dividend date of 9 April 2026
• The Board intends to review the feasibility of a supplementary dividend payment following a restart of production, exports and payment receipts

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog