WTI (Apr) $96.21 +$2.71, Brent (May) $103.42 +$3.21, Diff -$7.21 +50c
USNG (Apr) $3.12 +10c, UKNG (Apr) 129.75p -2.25p, TTF (Apr) €50.86 -€1.565

Oil price

 Crude was initially down this morning but after an Israeli strike on an Iranian gas terminal has kicked the wasps nest. The API showed a 9m draw in crude but no one is looking at that nor the EIA numbers this afternoon. 

And Iraq has cut a deal with Turkey to start production through the Kirkuk-Ceyhan pipeline, 100/- b/d to start with of a potential 300/-. 

Genel Energy

Genel has announced its audited results for the year ended 31 December 2025.

Paul Weir, Chief Executive of Genel, said:
“We have established an ever more resilient business with significant upside potential, and we are now well-placed to deliver value to our shareholders and build a business that generates resilient, diversified and predictable cash flows that will support the resumption of distributions to shareholders.

In 2025 we made good progress on a range of fronts: our business continued to generate double digit USD millions of production business free cash flow, and we reported bottom line positive free cash flow to improve our net cash position, with excellent progress being made on reorganising the business. We successfully exited three unprofitable licences in Kurdistan and two in Africa, without incurring any new exit payments or retaining potential liability exposures. We also refinanced our bond, de-risking funding for delivery on future strategic priorities. We continue to maintain a strong focus on rigorous capital allocation.

Since regional hostilities began two weeks ago, production has been temporarily halted from Tawke. A state of readiness has been maintained to allow a production restart as soon as it is safe to do so. At this moment, our guidance for 2026 remains unchanged from our January trading statement. Our key focus remains acquiring new assets to diversify our cash generation, and participating in exports from Kurdistan, whilst ensuring that we maintain the right balance between risk and reward. Operationally, our organic portfolio, where there remains significant unvalued potential, is well-positioned to deliver progress this year, with planned drilling at Tawke targeting additions to both production and reserves, a clear plan for de-risking Block 54 in Oman and tangible progress towards drilling the Toosan-1 well in Somaliland.”

Genel numbers are in line with guidance and the recent trading update which should come as no surprise, although the most recent events have temporarily stopped production from Tawke the company is ready to restart as soon as it is safe to do. At the moment guidance for this year remains unchanged. 

Indeed I am very confident that absent any attacks on the facilities, when normal service resumes it should be getting a great deal better. I say that as DNO are very confident about a long term significant increase in production, this is based on the fact that an exciting drilling programme, which started in Q4 of 2025, delivered wells that some of the time were producing strongly and with really good properties.And drilling at Tawke is substantially subsidised by the KRG.

Whilst this programme has been suspended for safety reasons I agree that there is huge scope for stepping up production and with the operator carrying high long term targets it looks good for Genel. The field is ready to restart, and with higher production targets Genel will be able to maximise local opportunities and obviously cash flow. 

Finally on this point Tawke oil is still sold at the wellhead to local refiners, this means that Genel get almost the same price as those who sell to the KRG but actually get immediate payments that are not tied up in receivables and especially right now, might be delayed for a while. 

So, Genel is looking in a very strong position indeed, on any sort of longer term timescale I agree with the CEO that the company is a resilient business with significant upside potential. It will on that view, with its robust balance sheet helped by the bond issue and great FCF be able to ‘support resumption of dividends’ in due course. In the recent update the shares are justifiably in the Bucket List and with an increased TP of 100p offer excellent long term attractions despite the current tensions in the Gulf.

Results summary ($ million unless stated)

1. EBITDAX is operating loss adjusted for the add back of depreciation and amortisation, exploration expense, net write-off/impairment of oil and gas assets, net ECL/reversal of ECL receivables and other non-cash items
2. Free cash flow is reconciled on page 8
3. Reported cash less IFRS debt is reconciled on page 8

Highlights

• Following the U.S.-Israeli air war on Iran that started on 28 February 2026, production and drilling operations on the Tawke licence were temporarily shut down. The Company continues to monitor developments closely to assess when it can safely and securely resume operations
• Tawke generated predictable production with consistent domestic sales demand, resulting in working interest production of 17,520 bopd (2024: 19,650 bopd), with all production sold domestically
• Domestic sales price averaged $32/bbl for the year (2024: $35/bbl), with all cash due for domestic sales received before the end of the year
• Production was temporarily stopped in July following the drone attacks on a number of Kurdistan oil operations, including Tawke, with gross production back to around 80,000 bopd by November
• Production business netback of $10 million (2024: $5 million) and free cash flow of $4 million (2024: $20 million). Closing net cash of $134 million (2024: $131 million)
  • Cash of $224 million (2024: $196 million)
  • Bond debt of $92 million due in 2030 (2024: $66 million)
• In late September, agreements were signed between the Federal Government of Iraq (‘FGI’), the Kurdistan Regional Government (the ‘KRG’) and a group of international oil companies to resume exports of crude oil produced in Kurdistan through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline. Genel chose not to participate at that point and continues to keep exports under review, with participating parties reporting that the process is working in line with expectation
• Balances with the KRG
  • $88 million (under KBT pricing and excluding interest) remains overdue from the KRG, although this has been reduced by about $40 million credit balances. We continue to work towards a plan for payment or settlement of amounts owed, and appropriate adjustment for price and interest
  • Not included in the $40 million, Genel Energy Miran Bina Bawi Limited, a subsidiary of the group, owes the KRG around $26 million relating to an arbitration legal fees charge, an appeal against which will be held in April in London
• Exits from the Sarta, Qara Dagh and Taq Taq licences finalised with no residual liability exposure. We have also exited the Lagzira licence in Morocco and the Odewayne licence in Somaliland, again with no residual liability exposure
• A socially responsible contributor to the global energy mix:
  • Portfolio carbon intensity under 14.4 kgCO2e/bbl, remaining below the industry average target
  • Climate disclosure: maintained a CDP Climate rating of B for a fourth consecutive year
  • The Genel20 Scholarship programme has entered its fourth year, where Genel is providing university tuition funding for undergraduates from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq
  • In Somaliland, Genel continued to engage with local communities through its social investments focused on healthcare in rural areas and supporting local education

OUTLOOK

• With Tawke domestic market sales expected to be consistent, and with production expected to benefit from new drilling in FY 2026, we expect production business netback to more than cover Genel’s costs, which include net interest payable
• Incremental to the production business, the Company expects to invest up to $20 million on its pre-production assets:
  • On Block 54 in Oman, in line with the 3-year initial exploration phase work plan, which includes 3D seismic acquisition and drilling two wells, as we announced at the time of entering the licence in the first half of 2025
  • SL10B13 in Somaliland, as we make progress towards drilling the Toosan-1 prospect in 2027
• The Company continues to progress towards building a business with a strong balance sheet that delivers resilient, reliable, repeatable and diversified cash flows that support a dividend programme. The Company’s objectives for the year on the path to building that business include:
  • acquisition of new assets to diversify our reserves and resources and cash generation
  • restart of exports of Tawke oil to access international pricing
  • pursuit of net amounts owed by the KRG
  • safe execution of activity on Block 54
  • further progress towards drilling Toosan-1

Sintana Energy

Sintana has provided the following update regarding Petroleum Exploration License 87 which governs blocks 2713A and 2713B located in the Orange Basin offshore in the Republic of Namibia. Sintana has a 7.4% indirect carried interest  in PEL 87.  

Pancontinental Energy Limited, the joint venture partner and operator of PEL 87, has received notification from the Namibian Ministry of Industry, Mines and Energy (MIME) that the Minister has granted approval to Pancontinental’s application to extend the current First Renewal Exploration Period of PEL 87 by 12 months, to January 22 2027. The extension has been granted with the following work commitments to be carried out on PEL 87 during the extension period: 

• Undertaking of an Environmental Impact Assessment (“EIA”)
• Reprocessing of 3D seismic data and seismic interpretation
• Drilling of an exploration well

The EIA is well progressed, having commenced in 2025, with the seismic reprocessing work program focusing on a subset of PEL 87 3D. The main purpose of the seismic work will improve seismic signal quality in specific areas.

Robert Bose, Chief Executive Officer of Sintana Energy, commented: 
“We are grateful to the Minister for the extension of PEL 87.  We look forward to the continued refinement of the existing seismic work in anticipation of securing a farmin partner to progress the project to a focused drilling program.”

Straightforward enough but still good news for Sintana and with plenty of scope for expanding the work programme. Sintana remains a top Bucket List stock and my target price. remains at 75p.

Jadestone Energy

Jadestone has announced that the Field Development Plan for the Nam Du / U Minh gas discoveries offshore Vietnam has been formally approved by the Vietnam Government.

T. Mitch Little, Chief Executive Officer of Jadestone, commented: 
“The FDP approval is a milestone achievement in the commercialization of the Nam Du / U Minh fields. It allows us to book initial 2P reserves for the project of 32 MMboe[1]and solidify discussions with potential farm in partners as we are now positioned to formally launch that process. I would like to thank all of our stakeholders in Vietnam for their leadership on this project approval, and Jadestone’s talented Vietnam team for their resiliency and dedication to bring us to this point. We are very pleased to welcome Phil Cunningham as Country Manager. His industry experience, particularly in Vietnam, will be of great benefit to Jadestone as we now push forward into the development phase.   

Nam Du / U Minh will establish a new production hub offshore Southwest Vietnam. The tendering process for the main project infrastructure is well advanced, with the development expected to result in significant contract awards to local Vietnam companies, and generate substantial government revenues, over its life. Importantly, the project supports Vietnam’s strategic plan, prioritizing sovereign resources to enhance Vietnam’s energy security and economic growth, while also creating significant local employment opportunities.  Beyond the approved development there is significant upside potential within our existing licenses, which, if proven, will position Jadestone as a key contributor to Vietnam’s gas supply for decades to come.”

The company has been positive about the potential FDP approval for Nam / Du but the market had grown slightly wary that it was taking longer than expected, so this is good news. Particularly it sends a strong message that the Vietnamese Government supports the project given that some disbelievers were equating lack of progress with misgivings amongst govt stakeholders.

This is the catalyst that the company needed to formalise the farm-down process and I know that leading up to this moment Jadestone has had a great deal of unsolicited interest in it. In particular what is likely proving attractive to bigger industry players is the wider running room on the acreage, with up to 1.5Tcf of unrisked gas in place on Jadestone’s licences which could be used to increase/extend the ND/UM plateau.

I particularly like the fact that coupled with this approval Jadestone has announced that Phil Cunningham has been recruited as Vietnam country manager, he has an excellent CV with a lot of upstream experience and is well qualified to take this project forward. 

So, with the project approved and a new country head appointed, Jadestone have moved forward most impressively. The management team is now very strong indeed and highly focused on delivery and creating shareholder value. 

This is manifested by the upward movement in the shares which is long overdue, long before the analysts visit to Akatara which I joined the stock has been appreciating, up 20% on a month, 56% in six months and 20% year on year. 

Accordingly I am really pleased that my faith in the company has been justified, it is in the Bucket List for a good reason and my target price of 75p looks increasingly achievable. There is much to like about Jadestone, today it has ticked another box which adds significantly to its pool of value. 

Jadestone is pleased to announce that, in preparation for the development phase in Vietnam, it has recruited Phil Cunningham as Vietnam Country Manager. Phil has over 30 years’ experience in the upstream industry, including positions of increasing seniority with some of the world’s largest upstream companies. He joins Jadestone after working for TotalEnergies, where he most recently served as Managing Director and Country Chair for Italy, and previously served in a similar role in Norway. Earlier in his career, he spent nine years working in a variety of roles across Southeast Asia, including in Vietnam as a development engineer and then upstream operations manager for BP, as well as Vietnam asset manager for Premier Oil. Phil is a chartered chemical engineer and a Fellow of the IChemE.

Prospex Energy

Prospex has announced that it is now in receipt of committed subscriptions totalling £653,950 for the extended offering of its unsecured Convertible Loan Notes, which was announced on 13 March 2026.  This brings the total funds raised through the Company’s CLN offer to £2 million, 25% above the original £1.6 million target.

Highlights

• Committed subscriptions of £653,950 (in addition to the £1,346,050 previously announced on 19 January 2026) for the Company’s offering of unsecured Convertible Loan Notes of £1 each, due at the end of June 2028 (the “Loan Notes”).
• Subscriptions for this round were significantly oversubscribed due to strong investor demand with allocated capacity being limited by the Board to a cumulative aggregate hard cap of £2 million
• The Loan Notes issued after 12 March 2026 are convertible at 3p per ordinary share at the election of the investor after the first anniversary of the date of subscription.
• Interest of 12% per annum is payable quarterly, with the first two interest payments on 31 March 2026 and 30 June 2026 to be capitalised and added to the loan principal rather than paid in cash.
• Loan principal to be repaid in three tranches at the end of December 2027, the end of March 2028 and the end of June 2028.
• Forecast increased gas production from the drilling campaigns on all three of the Company’s production concessions is expected to cover the capital repayments.
• Net proceeds will be used to support the Company’s ongoing activities, including current and future capital expenditure requirements.
• Ongoing operational costs and overheads continue to be met from production income generated by the Company’s existing production.

Tom Reynolds, Prospex’s CEO, commented:
“I am delighted by the support shown by existing and new investors for the Loan Note offering, resulting in the CLN being oversubscribed. The Board decided to cap the subscription level at £2 million to strike a balance between securing funding for value-adding activity and avoiding unnecessary dilution at this time, which we believe is in the best interests of shareholders.

“The funds raised will enable the Company to secure asset value and broaden its range of growth opportunities. I would like to thank all those who participated in the fundraise and I look forward to engaging with investors at the upcoming Investor Meet Company online event scheduled for 26 March 2026.”

Tom Reynolds is certainly a man in a hurry, with his detailed letter to shareholders outlining his preliminary thoughts after a month or so in the job and with an investor presentation next week he is certainly getting stuck in. 

And from the feedback I am getting the shareholders are very much on board with this process as is clearly the board who have backed him to the hilt. More specifically in this announcement, in which the CLN is substantially oversubscribed, there is much support from investors. Indeed it could have been capped higher than the £2m but Tom Reynolds is mindful of dilution.

In this case the board has accepted what the company requires and the strong support confirms that as they do in backing last week’s letter from the CEO which outlined a good, balanced approach in line with guidance. 

I strongly believe that Tom Reynolds is exactly what Prospex needed, we will hear more next week but domestic, low carbon gas in Europe has a very exciting future.

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog