WTI (Apr) $65.42 -21c, Brent (Apr) $70.85 +12c, Diff -$5.43 +33c
USNG (Apr)* $2.87 +7c, UKNG (Mar) 74.0p -0.15p, TTF (Apr)* €30.67 +€0.085
*Denotes expiry of March contracts

Oil price

Oil was quiet last night ahead of today’s round of talks in Geneva, Iran have continued to signal some appeasement but oil is firmer today but surprisingly not more affected by the huge build in crude stocks announced by the EIA yesterday. +15.9m barrels was way more than the 1.5m whisper and the 11.43m from the API. 

Also the Saudis are planning a ‘contingency’ increase in production in case Iran output drops again and with an Opec meeting this Sunday, stories of a rise in quotas of some 137/- b/d are also doing the rounds. 

Corcel

Corcel has confirmed that, further to the announcement made on 6 November 2025, it has now completed 100% of the 2D Seismic acquisition project at the operated KON-16 Block, within the Kwanza Basin, onshore Angola.

Highlights:

• 326-line km of high resolution 2D seismic data acquired over the KON-16 block
• Acquisition completed as planned
• Initial internal review of the raw field data shows excellent data quality
• The high quality of the seismic data provides clear imaging of key pre‑salt structures increasing confidence that this acquisition will lead to multiple de-risked pre-salt and post-salt drilling opportunities within KON-16
• Seismic processing will follow with results expected throughout the year to support prospect maturation and drilling preparation.

The 326-line km of 2D seismic was acquired throughout December 2025 and Q1 2026, with acquisition concluding on 22 February 2026. Initial internal review of the raw field data shows excellent data quality, materially superior to previous seismic acquired in the Kwanza Basin to date. The dataset provides clear imaging of key pre‑salt structures and gives the Company increased confidence in advancing multiple de‑risked pre‑salt and post‑salt drilling opportunities within KON‑16. 

Services related to the 2D seismic acquisition program were completed by BGP INC., CHINA NATIONAL PETROLEUM CORPORATION and its local subsidiary, efficiently, safely, and to a high technical standard. The initial field data shows the positive impact of the high specification acquisition parameters designed specifically to image the high-graded pre-salt prospects in KON-16, advancing prospect definition and supporting the Company’s progression toward drilling the high-impact KON‑16 exploration well.

Acquisition was completed in full, with all planned 2D line locations and seismic parameters delivered as designed, marking the transition to the next key milestone. Seismic processing will be undertaken by DUG Technology Ltd, a leading global geophysical processing specialist with extensive experience imaging complex pre‑salt plays worldwide, ensuring the KON‑16 dataset is processed to the highest technical standard to support prospect maturation and progression toward drilling.

Richard Lane, Corcel’s COO, commented: 
“Completing the seismic acquisition project at KON-16 is a major operational milestone for Corcel. This was the Company’s first operated E&P project; we had over 270 people working on site and over 220,000 manhours worked in total. The project was executed without incident, to a very high standard, and the initial results are incredibly encouraging. We would like to thank everyone that worked on the project, including Angola’s National Oil, Gas and Biofuels Agency (ANPG), BGP, and the entire Corcel team. We look forward to keeping shareholders updated as we move to the processing phase of this exciting project.”

This is indeed a ‘major operational milestone’ for Corcel who have now completed the largest onshore seismic programme in the Kwanza basin since the 2D seismic that happened in 2010. For a small company like Corcel this is indeed a huge achievement, just look at the sheer numbers of contractors and hours worked in its first operated project and shows its operational capabilities.

Following processing and interpretation the acreage will be drill-ready to go after the very exciting pre-salt prospects at KON-16 with all the potential upside that this brings. Corcel has been in the Bucket List from day 1 and will remain there in this weeks update despite recent outperformance. This has seen the shares up by 22% over 1 month, +12% on 6 months and up 107% year on year but there is much to come both operationally and corporately, my TP of 2p remains very much in place. 

Background Information:

The onshore Kwanza basin has 2,589 line-km of 2D data acquired in 2010 and reprocessed in 2025. Specifically, over KON-16 there are 143 line-km of 2D data. Acquiring 326 line-km of new high quality 2D data provides a 227% increase in seismic coverage inside KON-16 which will greatly increase the subsurface imaging, prospect definition, and decrease exploration risk. 

The 2D seismic acquisition project at KON-16 is essential to progress the asset to drill ready status. Current modern 2D line spacing averages >14 km in the areas of interest, and while this is sufficient to identify prospectivity, especially when integrated with the eFTG (high resolution gravity gradiometry) data acquired in 2024, a closer 2D line spacing of 2.5 km was achieved, which is beneficial when moving on to drilling.

The seismic campaign was designed to cover specific prospects high-graded by the Corcel team and to build on the work done in 2025, integrating the legacy 1970’s 2D data, the 2010 2D seismic data (which was recently reprocessed), and the 2024 eFTG data.

Jadestone Energy

Jadestone has announced its 2026 guidance and end-2025 reserves update.   

T. Mitch Little, Chief Executive Officer of Jadestone, commented:
“Through successful organic and acquisition led growth, Jadestone has increased its production 73% over the 2022-25 period, representing compound annual growth of 20%. It remains our priority to extend this growth trajectory and progress our strategic objective of being the leading independent Asia-Pacific upstream company. The next major catalyst in our growth story is the upcoming FDP approval for our Vietnam gas development. This will be a meaningful milestone, allowing us to book the project’s reserves and expedite discussions with potential partners, as we continue to build momentum behind this material organic growth opportunity creating value for all stakeholders.     

2026 will be a year of continued focus on unlocking the value from our existing portfolio, while exercising discipline and prudence in the face of volatile oil prices. Our development activity will be focused on high return, quick payback infill drilling within the PM323 license offshore Malaysia. The firm program is targeting the development of approximately 2 MMbbls of oil, net to Jadestone, with payback within a year. Depending on the results of the first two wells, a contingent third well could also be added to this year’s program. Our commitment to this additional development activity strengthens our case for a PM323 license extension, where advanced discussions have been encouraging. This disciplined investment approach will reduce Group capital expenditure in 2026 below previous expectations and will be significantly lower than 2025 spend.

Following strong growth in recent years with the development of the Akatara field, Group production is expected to be broadly flat year-on-year as the positive impact of the PM323 campaign offsets natural decline, the 2025 disposal of Sinphuhorm and an increase in planned maintenance activities primarily associated with the CWLH FPSO drydock. During 2025, significant progress was made in reducing routine opex. We will continue to be relentless in managing opex, however, we will see an increase in 2026 due to triennial subsea maintenance work, contract renewals, the FPSO drydock at CWLH which occurs every five years, and activity deferrals from 2025.

We remain committed to both operational and financial discipline as we seek to create value for our shareholders. I’m pleased to report that we are making good progress towards refinancing our reserves-based lending facility, which will allow us to prioritize Jadestone’s cash flow generation for growth. We are also actively reviewing options to crystallize the value in our existing asset base, as well as potential inorganic growth opportunities.”

Guidance for 2026 and an end year reserves update for 2025 from Jadestone today, the former is for production expectations of 18-21/boe/d (19.8), capex of $50-80m ($113m) and opex of $260-300m ($243m). 2P reserves of 56.2mboe (68.3m) is good and reflects production of 7m barrels and the Sinphuhorm disposal. 

Whilst production is forecast to be flat this year, as noted above there should be a positive contribution from Malaysia where two, possibly three wells are expected to be drilled. These would come on production this year, they payback within a year and are key to Jadestone’s immediate free cash flow. These additions, less some modest natural decline and the postponing of the Skua-10 well gives conservative guidance that the market can trust.

Jadestone has clearly decided that in these volatile oil price times that ‘discipline and prudence’ are the watchwords, the capex guide is much lower than expectations and significantly lower than last year but success in PM 323 would encourage a licence extension from 2028 and those discussions are already ‘encouraging’. 

Finally the five yearly maintenance of the CWLH FPSO is scheduled for March and April and it will be in drydock for around two months when other subsea maintenance is also carried out.  CWLH has a great deal of value and its worth, like that of the significant promise at Akatara, is by no means in the share price. 

In Vietnam FDP approval is close to final signing subject to a couple of commercial points being ironed out. With FDP approval, momentum could build around the Vietnam project quickly.

The NPV10 number of $692m is comparable to the end 2024 figure of $799m, explained by the sale of Sinphuhorm, minor reserve revisions and is materially above the current market cap, such an independent verification of value leads me to my new Target Price of 75p which I consider to be a conservative expectation. 

All these factors, along with a new CPR by ERCE on the Vietnamese assets has already been commissioned, and expected to be published ‘in a matter of months’ and will I think show that this is a significant project and very capable of attracting partners in any farm-out process, after all it may have over a TCF of gas in place.  

I have said before that Jadestone is in a strong place with excellent management doing what is right by the portfolio, and being prudent in a volatile world. My visit to Akatara last November showed the huge promise there, and with Vietnam, Malaysia and CWLH in Australia giving serious long term potential the company is a high quality investment at these levels. 

2026 Guidance[1]

• 2026 production guidance is set at 18,000-21,000 boe/d. Natural portfolio decline is expected to be offset by the positive impact of the PM323 infill drilling campaign, offshore Malaysia, which is due to commence near the end of Q1 2026 with first oil expected around mid-year. The Skua-10ST infill well at Montara (previously planned for 2026) has been deferred due to oil price volatility and to allow for the integration of further technical and planning studies following the results of the Skua-11ST well drilled in 2025. 2026 production guidance also reflects ~55 days planned downtime at CWLH for the maintenance related dry-docking of the Okha FPSO.
• 2026 total production costs[2] of US$260-300 million, which includes additional costs relating to triennial subsea maintenance programs, costs associated with the five-yearly dry-docking of the CWLH FPSO, logistics contract renewals in Australia and costs deferred from 2025. With the confluence of these combined activities, the Group expects 2026 to mark a near-term peak in total production costs.
• 2026 capital expenditure of US$50-80 million. Approximately two-thirds of 2026 capex will be directed towards development activities primarily in Malaysia (with the upper end of the range reflecting a contingent PM323 well) and Vietnam, with a further ~15% at CWLH, while the remainder is largely dedicated to ensuring and protecting reliability across the business.
• In light of the 2026 guidance set out today, as well as the Group’s preliminary expectations for 2027, the Group’s unlevered free cash flow guidance[3] for the 2025-2027 period is revised to US$200-240 million at US$70/bbl Brent.
  • In February 2025, the Group announced unlevered free cash flow guidance3 for the 2025-2027 period of US$270 million, based on a Brent oil price of US$70/bbl.
  • The revised unlevered free cash flow guidance at end-2025 is predominantly due to the Skua-11ST cost increase, along with other minor economic and technical factors.
  • Every US$10/bbl move in the underlying Brent assumption changes the 2025-2027 free cash flow guidance by ±US$90 million, which is in line with the original sensitivity given in February 2025.
• As previously disclosed, the Group expects to record a non-cash impairment in its year-end 2025 accounts. The non-cash impairment is estimated at approximately US$90 million (subject to completion of the 2025 full-year audit process). The impact of lower oil price forecasts utilized by Jadestone’s external reserves auditor is a significant contributor to the non-cash impairment.

End-2025 Reserves Update

• End-2025 2P reserves[4] totalled 56.2 MMboe, a decrease of 8.3 MMboe on end-2024, primarily due to 7.0 MMboe of production in 2025 and the remainder due to technical and economic revisions across the Group.
• The economic lives of the Group’s assets are broadly unchanged from the dates disclosed in the 2024 Annual Report. In line with previous disclosures, the Group does not expect significant decommissioning activity at the Montara field before 2031 at the earliest.
• The 2P NPV104 of the Group’s 2P reserves at end-2025 was US$519 million, compared to US$799 million at end-2024. The year-on-year change is primarily explained by revised oil price assumptions[5] (~US$170 million) utilized by the Group’s independent reserves auditor at year-end 2025. Lesser impacts were the reserves reduction associated with 2025 production and the disposal of Sinphuhorm, with the remainder being attributable to asset-specific technical factors.
  • Net of the Group’s year-end 2025 net debt position of US$89 million, the 2P NPV10 equates to a value[6] significantly in excess of the Company’s current share price.
  • Utilizing the independent reserves auditor’s oil price forecast at end-2024, the Group’s 2P end-2025 NPV10 would equate to US$692 million. The reduction compared to the end-2024 NPV10 is due to 2025 production, minor reserve revisions and the sale of Sinphuhorm, demonstrating the quality of the Group’s asset base together with its sensitivity to oil prices.
• The Group has commissioned an updated Competent Person’s Report (“CPR”) on the Nam Du/U Minh discoveries offshore Vietnam from Sproule ERCE, which will also include an assessment of the prospective resource within Jadestone’s existing PSCs. The results of the CPR will be announced in due course, along with an update on the Group’s wider contingent resource base.

[1] 2026 guidance reflects the increase in the Group’s interest in the PM329 PSC offshore Malaysia from 70% to 100%, following the withdrawal of the Group’s partner effective 1.1.2026.
[2] Total production costs are stated prior to audit adjustments including non-cash inventory and lifting movements.
[3] Does not reflect any capital expenditure or abandonment spend outside the Group’s producing assets.
[4] Reserves and calculations exclude the Sinphuhorm interest, which was sold in April 2025. The end-2025 reserves assessment by Sproule ERCE and associated 2P NPV10 is based on the following Brent oil prices – 2026: US$62/bbl, 2027: US$67/bbl, 2028: US$72/bbl escalated at 2% per annum thereafter. The reserves assessment assumes a 90% working interest in the Akatara field.
[5] The end-2024 reserves assessment by ERCE and associated 2P NPV10 was based on the following Brent prices – 2025: US$76/bbl, 2026: US$74/bbl, 2027: US$75/bbl flat escalated at 2% per annum thereafter.
[6] Calculated as US$519 million less the Group’s 2025 year-end net debt position of US$89 million, divided by the current GBP:USD rate and the number of shares in issue (542,162,715). This figure includes forecast decommissioning spend on producing assets, but is not adjusted for other costs and obligations of the Group, including general and administrative costs and forecast decommissioning spend on non-producing assets. 

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog