Emeritus Professor Joe Nellis - economic adviser at MHA, the accountancy and advisory firm

 “The Spring Statement will matter less for policy decisions and far more for what it signals about the UK’s ability to deliver stability, credibility and growth in 2026 and beyond.”

The Spring Statement on 3rd March will carry more weight than its modest billing suggests. While not likely to involve substantial spending announcements, it will play a decisive role in shaping economic expectations for 2026 and beyond, particularly as growth remains subdued, borrowing costs elevated and business confidence fragile.

The overriding message from the Chancellor will be stability. Updated forecasts from the Office for Budget Responsibility will reveal how resilient the public finances are to slower growth, higher debt servicing costs and ongoing pressure on public services. For businesses and investors, these forecasts matter because they determine whether the government has the fiscal space to support growth and encourage investment — or whether restraint will dominate policy choices for the foreseeable future.

What are we likely to hear? The Treasury has been keen to make this a ‘non-event,’ and emphasis is expected to be firmly on fiscal discipline and a slowly improving economy marked by stable (if slow) growth and falling inflation. A record surplus in Government finances in January reinforces that there is no need for the drastic measures seen this time last year, but the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre remains limited and major spending initiatives are unlikely. Instead, the Government is expected to stress stability, adherence to fiscal rules and a gradual improvement in the debt outlook. Any pro-growth measures are likely to focus on the supply side, including investment incentives, planning reform and targeted infrastructure commitments rather than headline-grabbing giveaways.

For business, a non-event is a relief. In an environment where economic uncertainty has put key business decisions and forward investment on hold, predictability itself becomes a form of economic stimulus — the Chancellor will be very happy if she can say “nothing to see here” and everyone can move on.

Will this Spring Statement be transformational? Almost certainly not. But it sets the fiscal narrative for the rest of 2026, anchors market expectations and tests whether the government can balance economic realism with a credible growth strategy.

The big question for business is simple: will stability be enough to unlock investment — or does the UK now need a bolder plan to raise productivity and long-term growth?

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