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Commentary: Oil price, Corcel, Rockhopper

22/12/2025

WTI (Feb)* $56.62 -51c, Brent (Feb) $60.47+65c, Diff -$3.95 +28c.
USNG (Jan) $3.98 +7c, UKNG (Jan) 74.05p +0.65p, TTF (Jan) €27.65 +€0.02

*Denotes expiry of Jan WTI contract

Oil price

Oil has rallied sharply this morning as the reverberations from the blockade on Venezuela start to seep into the market. I’m not sure that most commentators realise quite what it’s all about, save that Maduro is the problem. The smart people are looking at quite where the investment in the country has come from and what level of threat it represents. 

Meanwhile Russia has stepped up its LNG exports to China who are finding every which way to buy cheap power in any way and any form. The Baker Hughes rig count on Friday was a little pre-Christmassy, overall rigs were down by 6 units to 542 and in oil the number was down 8 to 406, any other week and we would worry about those numbers.

Corcel

Full year results from Corcel below and are extensive and have comments at length from both Chairman and CEO. As always these numbers are relatively insignificant especially given quite how busy the company has been before and mainly after the year end. It has also been a genuinely game-changing period and that is often an overused expression.

At KON-16 where Corcel has a 71.5% stake the company are about to start the 2D seismic programme onshore Angola which will increase the data available from the new 326 line km and adds to the existing seismic and drilling data. 

This will lead to enabling the company to delineate the structures and lead to finding the optimum drilling sites for the upcoming exploration well. Armed with all this data, a farm-out should be under way by the end of 2026 and be drill ready at the year end 2026/early 2027. 

Meanwhile the company is still looking to make acquisitions, maybe of production and in a number of potential geographies. The company is fully funded from opportunistic fund raisings, valuable warrant conversions and of course the Sintana farm-out. 

Next year looks like being very exciting for Corcel, its strong backing by wealthy shareholders and their friends will count for a great deal, not least being able to play hard ball in farm-out negotiations. My 2p TP is very much intact, any success in Angola could dwarf that which makes me think that there is potentially still significant upside north of that, this is despite the 150% rise in the shares this year.

A certainty for the new year bucket list Corcel is well managed, has a good portfolio with big upside, supportive shareholders and is fully financed with backers with big cheque books. This has been a huge find this year and I for one am mighty glad that I found it so early but you haven’t missed the Corcel boat, next year looks highly exciting. 

The Company’s Annual Report and Financial Statements for 2025, extracts from which are set out below, together with the Annual General Meeting Notice, will be published and sent out to the Company’s shareholders shortly and will be available on the Company’s website at www.corcelplc.com.

The Annual General Meeting will be held at 10:00 am on Wednesday 28 January 2026 at The Wigmore Room, 33 Cavendish Square, London W1G 0PW.

Chairman’s statement

This has been a defining year for Corcel, one in which the Company moved from strategic repositioning into a well laid out growth plan and disciplined execution. As a Board, our responsibility has been to ensure that this transformation is built on sound governance and effective oversight, and with a senior leadership team fully aligned with long-term value creation. I am pleased to report that we have made substantial progress on all fronts.

Strengthening governance for a company in acceleration

Over the course of the year, we oversaw a number of important enhancements to Corcel’s governance framework. These changes were designed to match the Company’s growing operational footprint, the scale of its ambitions, and the increasing expectations of our stakeholders.

We strengthened the Board with a refreshed mix of technical, commercial and financial expertise, ensuring robust challenge, independent oversight and strategic clarity as Corcel expanded its activities across Angola and Brazil. The appointment of Richard Lane as Chief Operating Officer, alongside the evolution of the executive team under Scott and Geraldine’s leadership, has significantly deepened our operational capability while maintaining accountability at every level of the organisation.

Importantly, we have also seen meaningful personal investment from members of the Board and management. This alignment of interests is a cornerstone of sound governance and reflects our collective confidence in Corcel’s strategy and future.

Board oversight through a period of strategic momentum

The Company delivered exceptional progress this year – from consolidating its position in KON-16 to advancing technical programmes and creating optionality for near-term production. The Board has worked closely with management to ensure that these achievements were underpinned by disciplined capital allocation, thoughtful risk management and a clear strategic rationale.

Several of the year’s most notable developments, including the KON-16 equity interest consolidation, the strategic alliance with Sintana, and the strengthening of the Company’s financial position, reflect the disciplined, shareholder-focused approach we will continue to pursue.

A more resilient, well-capitalised and strategically focused Corcel

Corcel ends the year as a fundamentally stronger business:

  • a focused portfolio aligned to high-value oil and gas opportunities;
  • a significantly enhanced balance sheet;
  • a broadened institutional investor base; and
  • a leadership team built to execute with speed and discipline.

These foundations have been developed through deliberate strategic oversight and a commitment to maintaining the highest standards of governance as the Company accelerates its operational activities.

Looking ahead: disciplined oversight as Corcel enters its most active phase. 

The year ahead will be transformational, with seismic acquisition at KON-16, preparations for drilling in 2026, renewed activity across KON-11 and KON-12, and further expansion opportunities internationally. The Board’s focus will remain on:

  • safeguarding capital discipline;
  • ensuring operational excellence and risk management;
  • supporting management as Corcel scales; and
  • maintaining transparent, constructive engagement with shareholders and regulators. 

Corcel is entering a period of significant opportunity, and equally significant responsibility. The Board is fully committed to ensuring that the Company’s growth is delivered responsibly, strategically, and with long-term shareholder value at its core.

I would like to thank my fellow Board members, our executive team, our partners in, and most importantly, our shareholders for their confidence and support during this transformative year. Corcel’s momentum is real, its foundations are strong, and its trajectory is upward.

We look forward to overseeing and enabling the next stage of Corcel’s growth.

Pradeep Kabra, Independent Non-Executive Chairman

CEO’s Statement 

A year of strategic transformation and acceleration

The past twelve months have marked a profound turning point for Corcel. We entered the period as a company repositioning itself around Angola and Brazil. We closed the year, and have progressed further still post-period, as a rapidly emerging high-impact exploration company with a sharply strengthened balance sheet and a commanding operated position in one of the most prospective parts of the onshore Kwanza Basin.

Our strategy from the outset was clear: secure high-impact acreage, build optionality across exploration and near-term production, and use commercial creativity to scale without destructive dilution.

Over the last twelve months we delivered exactly that. Through disciplined portfolio management, accelerated execution, strategic partnerships, and improved governance, Corcel has transformed into a well-capitalised, opportunity-rich, multi-jurisdiction energy company capable of delivering material value creation.

Rebuilding the company and restoring momentum

When we began the turnaround in mid-2024, we were at the beginning of a rebuild. We made changes to governance, board composition, commercial discipline, and operational focus. We shifted the organisation toward execution, speed and strategic clarity.

Since then, Corcel has: 

  • Increased its net interest in KON-16 from 31.5% to 71.5% (subject to regulatory approval), achieving both early strategic consolidation and early monetisation.
  • Designed, permitted, financed, and prepared for execution a very sound exploration program in the Kwanza Basin.
  • Secured high-calibre institutional investors from across Asia, North America, South America, Europe and Africa, reflecting broad international confidence in Corcel’s strategy and execution.
  • Executed value accretive transactions, including the strategic alliance with Sintana Energy, crystallising early value and conditionally  securing $2.5m in development funding, as well as the incremental increases in interest in KON-16 .
  • Attracted a strong technical team, from management to field operations with experience that is directly relevant to our core geographies.
  • Improved market confidence, reflected in over 180% increase in share price and an almost tenfold increase in market capitalisation since the start of the period to date.

This momentum reflects a fundamental shift: Corcel is no longer a junior explorer attempting repositioning, it is now an ambitious, financially strengthened, technically capable and operationally active E&P company with a clear route to material value creation.

Angola: Building a dominant onshore position in the Kwanza Basin

The progress made in Angola this year has been transformational. We are now one of the largest interest holders and operators in the onshore Kwanza Basin, a basin with large pre-salt potential, significant post-salt opportunities, and an emerging competitive landscape where first-mover advantage is decisive.

KON-16: From early entry to basin-defining control

  • Started the period with a 31.5% net interest. 
  • Increased net interest to 49.5% at no cost in September 2024.
  • Acquired a further 27% net interest in May 2025 for a modest outlay.
  • Conditionally monetised a 5% net interest for $2.5m, validating asset value.
  • Resulting current net position: 71.5%, with 80% operated control through Atlas Petroleum Exploration Limited (APEX).

This working interest consolidation positions Corcel at the centre of one of Africa’s most prospective onshore exploration basins.

Technical progress: foundation for drilling in 2026

Since the beginning of the period under review (including post-period) we:

  • Completed a 100% coverage Enhanced Full Tensor Gradiometry (eFTG) survey.
  • Reprocessed legacy 2D seismic.
  • High-graded multiple pre-salt and post-salt exploration leads.
  • Were awarded and advanced the Environmental Impact Assessment (completed and approved post period).
  • Designed a targeted 2D seismic acquisition program of 326 line-km for 2025.
  • Signed the seismic acquisition contract with BGP following a competitive tender.
  • Secured all permits required for both seismic acquisition and exploration drilling.

These technical steps, combined with the increased working interest and strategic funding, move Corcel decisively towards drilling an exploration well in KON-16 in 2026, targeting large-scale post-salt and pre-salt structures.

This is potentially basin-reshaping exploration, and Corcel is leading it.

KON-11 and KON-12: Reactivating historic potential

The Tobias and Galinda fields, within KON-11 and KON-12 respectively, are important near-term opportunities:

  • Workover and intervention operations in Tobias-13 and Tobias-14 recommenced in January 2025.
  • Engineering and production restoration plans are advancing.
  • These brownfield assets have the potential to create nearer-term cashflow and complement the broader exploration and production strategy.

We view KON-11 and KON-12 as synergistic with KON-16 as an integrated acreage package across the heart of the Kwanza Basin with both near-term production and material exploration upside. Work is ongoing to unlock the exploration upside in KON 11 and KON 12. We completed a 100% coverage Enhanced Full Tensor Gradiometry (eFTG) survey in KON 12 and 41% coverage in KON 11, setting the two assets up for possible 2D seismic campaigns in 2026.

Brazil: Rapid expansion into profitable onshore gas

Our Brazil strategy is simple: build a non-dilutive, production-backed portfolio that complements our high-impact exploration in Angola. 

In November 2024, we secured an option to acquire 20% of the IRAI Field and ROFR rights over the remaining 80% and the adjacent TUC-T-172 exploration block. While the option period has now expired, the opportunity demonstrated the core of our strategy: low-risk, high-margin, short-cycle investments that strengthen the business while we pursue high-impact exploration.

During the option period:

  • Workovers commenced (February 2025).
  • EI-1 delivered a stable gross production rate of 20,000 m³/day (120 BOEPD).

We continue to evaluate similar opportunities in Brazil’s onshore gas sector.

Strengthening our balance sheet and shareholder base

Throughout the period and since the year-end, Corcel has secured multiple rounds of funding, each anchored by sophisticated, globally diversified private and institutional investors who recognise the scale of the opportunity we are building. Every raise was executed with discipline – always very close to market price, often at a premium, and never below prior levels. Corcel enters 2026 with a significantly strengthened cash position, providing meaningful strategic flexibility as we progress negotiations on potential producing asset acquisitions and evaluate farm-down options in KON-16.

Corcel is fully funded for its entire 326 line km KON-16 seismic program and core operational and business development activities through 2026.

People, governance, and leadership renewal

This year saw a renewal across our leadership and governance framework:

  • Appointment of Pradeep Kabra as Chairman, bringing 35+ years of global E&P leadership.
  • Appointment of Richard Lane as COO, adding deep operational and subsurface expertise in Angola and Brazil.
  • Strengthened independent oversight through our Audit and ESG committees.
  • Executive team alignment evidenced by significant personal share purchases by Directors.

Our team today blends commercial agility, technical depth, and capital markets capability – essential to executing the next phase of growth.

Financial Review

The financial year ending 30 June 2025 marked a period of decisive transition as the Group completed its repositioning into a focused oil and gas business. Strengthening financial resilience while expanding our operational footprint remained a core priority.

During the year, Corcel completed two key equity fundraises aligned with its strategic objectives. In September 2024, the Company raised £1.22 million at £0.001 per share, supporting continued technical work in the Kwanza Basin and early-stage evaluation activities in Brazil. A subsequent placing in February 2025 raised £2.72 at £0.0016 per share, enabling preparations for the KON-16 2D seismic programme and further progression of the Angolan and Brazilian initiatives. As a result, cash balances at 30 June 2025 increased to £0.51 million (2024: £0.26 million).

For the financial year, the Group recorded a loss of £7.02 million (2024: £3.04 million), reflecting the rapid scale-up of oil and gas activities, expansion of the technical, operational and corporate teams, and the write-down of legacy non-core assets, including assets held for sale. Administrative expenses rose modestly to £3.12 million (2024: £2.57 million), in line with the Company’s growth, while project expenses remained stable at £0.12 million (2024: £0.14 million) due to disciplined capital deployment and the capitalisation of most technical work in Angola.

As part of the rationalisation of its legacy portfolio, the Group recognised a £0.179 million impairment on the Mt Weld project in Australia. Finance costs decreased to £0.11 million (2024: £0.13 million). Discontinued operations, relating solely to the Mambare Nickel joint venture, resulted in a £3.20 million loss (2024: £0.03 million), driven by the impairment of the asset following disputes with the joint venture partner and confirmation that the underlying exploration licence had not been renewed. 

Despite these non-cash charges, the Group closed the year with a significantly reinforced capital position, a streamlined portfolio focused exclusively on oil and gas, and the financial strength required to drive forward its core strategy.

Following the period end, Corcel’s financial position improved substantially. A July 2025 placing added £1.1 million, the accelerated exercise of outstanding warrants contributed a further £3.85 million, and an additional £3 million was raised in December 2025 at £0.0035 per share. Taken together, these inflows provide the Company with ample liquidity and full funding for planned technical work in Angola and continued execution of the international growth strategy.

The year ahead: Executing the value step-change

Corcel now stands at the beginning of its most active operational period in its recent history.

Our priorities for the coming year are clear:

  1. Complete the KON-16 seismic program: delivering a fully matured prospect inventory.
  2. Prepare for the first exploration well in KON-16 in 2026: a potentially basin-defining event.
  3. Advance KON-11 and KON-12 operations: restoring operations and enhancing asset value.
  4. Advancing our production ambitions, evaluation and moving towards potential acquisitions.
  5. Deliver disciplined capital allocation: preserving financial strength while capturing growth.
  6. Build a regional operational leadership position across the onshore Kwanza Basin.

We are moving from strategy to execution from a position of financial strength and technical readiness.

When we began this transformation, our ambition was bold: to build a leading energy company in sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America, driven by strategic and commercial prowess, technical excellence, disciplined capital management, and with a portfolio capable of delivering step-change value. Today, that ambition is no longer conceptual, it is underway.

On behalf of the Board and management team, I extend my sincere appreciation to our shareholders, our partners in Angola and Brazil, our employees, the governments and regulators in the countries in which we operate, and – very importantly – the communities in which we operate. Your support and collaboration are integral to Corcel’s success.

Scott Gilbert, Chief Executive Officer

Rockhopper Exploration

Rockhopper has announced that further to the announcement made on 10 December 2025 regarding the Company taking the Final Investment Decision (“FID”) on the Sea Lion Project, Financial Close has now occurred.

Accordingly, the Placing, as announced on 31 July 2025, will proceed to completion and the Company will proceed to launch the Open Offer.

All key contracts in connection with Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Project have now been negotiated and entered into by the operator Navitas Petroleum and Development Limited (“Navitas”). The budgeted costs from FID to project completion, including appropriate schedule and capex contingencies and financing costs, remain at US$2.1 billion as announced in July 2025. On this basis, taking into account the proceeds of the Placing, the Company is fully funded for its equity portion of Phase 1 of the Sea Lion Project. 

Sam Moody, Chief Executive Officer of Rockhopper Exploration, commented: 
“I am delighted that we have reached Financial Close on the Sea Lion Project, arguably the single most important day in our history since we made the Sea Lion discovery. We now look forward to entering the development phase for the field with our partner and operator, Navitas, who have done an exceptional job both re-engineering the development and leading the financing. I am also very pleased that as a result of reaching Financial Close we are able to complete the Placing and also launch the Open Offer, where qualifying Shareholders can purchase Ordinary Shares at the Placing price. This is a very exciting time for Rockhopper and I would like to thank our Shareholders for their support and all at both Navitas and FIG for their work as we enter the next phase of the Company’s history.” 

This is without doubt a red letter day for Rockhopper and after all this time they deserve their moment in the sun. Today this means that the placing can complete and the Open Offer can be launched.

Perhaps more importantly this means that Rockhopper are off and running, good to go on the exciting development phase with Navitas and with plenty of upside from here. And that is despite the share being up 50% on 6 months, 225% on a year and 1000% over 5 years, game, set and match I think…

Over the years I have, as long term readers will corroborate, been a huge fan and more importantly unswerving supporter of Sea Lion and it gives me great pleasure to once and for all prove the naysayers wrong. And that includes industry leaders who in the past have said that they would ‘drink every barrel’ that came out of the project, I hope that they are thirsty…

The Placing

As a result of FID being taken and Financial Close having been achieved, the Placing will now proceed to completion. The Placing has raised aggregate gross proceeds of approximately US$142 million from the issue of 201,102,976 new ordinary shares in the Company (the “New Ordinary Shares”) at an Issue Price of 53 pence[1] per New Ordinary Share, comprising in aggregate 198,207,354 Placing Shares and 2,895,622 Interest Shares. Application has been made to the London Stock Exchange for the New Ordinary Shares to be admitted to trading on AIM and admission is expected to become effective on or around 8.00 a.m. on 31 December 2025 (“Admission”). The gross proceeds of the Placing, which are currently held in an Escrow Account, will be released to the Company on Admission.

Pursuant to the Placing, the Company will also issue a total of 50,275,732 Underwriting Warrants upon Admission. Each Underwriting Warrant will give the holder the right to subscribe for one new Ordinary Share at a Strike Price of 80 pence[2] per Ordinary Share at any time up to (and including) 5.00 p.m. on the fourth anniversary of Admission. The Underwriting Warrants will not be admitted to trading on AIM or on any other stock exchange. It is currently intended that settlement of the Underwriting Warrants via CREST will be on the same timetable as settlement of the Placing Shares and Interest Shares.

Any interest accrued for the benefit of Placees in the Escrow Account that has not been converted into the Interest Shares will be returned to Placees within 30 Business Days of Admission.

Total Voting Rights

The Company confirms that, upon Admission of the New Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Placing, which is expected to occur on or around 31 December 2025, the issued ordinary share capital of the Company will consist of 847,316,741 Ordinary Shares of 1 pence each in the capital of the Company and there will be no Ordinary Shares held in treasury. This issued share capital figure can be used by Shareholders as the denominator for the calculations by which they will determine if they are required to notify their interest in, or a change to their interest in, the Company under the FCA’s Disclosure Guidance and Transparency Rules.

The Open Offer

The Company considers it important that Shareholders who were not able to take part in the Placing have an opportunity to subscribe for new Ordinary Shares at the Issue Price. The Company is therefore providing existing holders of Ordinary Shares as at 6.00 p.m. on 19 December 2025 (being the “Open Offer Record Time”) (“Qualifying Shareholders”) with the opportunity to subscribe for up to 13,188,036 Open Offer Shares at the Issue Price pursuant to the Open Offer, to raise up to approximately £7 million if fully taken-up.

Subject to the fulfilment of certain conditions, the Open Offer will provide Qualifying Shareholders with the opportunity to apply to acquire Ordinary Shares (the “Open Offer Shares”) at the Issue Price pro rata to their holdings of Existing Ordinary Shares against all Existing Ordinary Shares held by Qualifying Shareholders as at the Open Offer Record Time on the following basis:

  • 1 Open Offer Share for every 49 Existing Ordinary Shares held by Qualifying Shareholders
  • Entitlements to apply to acquire Open Offer Shares will be rounded down to the nearest whole number and any fractional entitlements to Open Offer Shares will be disregarded in calculating an Open Offer Entitlement and will be aggregated and made available to Qualifying Shareholders pursuant to an excess application facility. 
  • The Open Offer is structured to allow Qualifying Shareholders to subscribe for Open Offer Shares at the Issue Price pro rata to their holdings of Existing Ordinary Shares against all Existing Ordinary Shares held by Qualifying Shareholders. Qualifying Shareholders may also make applications in excess of their pro rata initial entitlement up to an amount equal to the total number of Open Offer Shares available under the Open Offer less an amount equal to such Qualifying Shareholder’s Open Offer Entitlement. To the extent that pro rata entitlements to Open Offer Shares are not subscribed for by Qualifying Shareholders, such Open Offer Shares will be available to satisfy such excess applications. Applications under the excess application facility may be allocated in such manner as the Directors may determine, in their absolute discretion, and no assurance can be given that any applications under the excess application facility by Qualifying Shareholders will be met in full or in part or at all. Applications made under the excess application facility will be scaled back at the Directors’ discretion if applications are received from Qualifying Shareholders for more than the number of Open Offer Shares available under the excess application facility. 
  • The Circular containing further details of the Open Offer, together with an Open Offer Application Form for Qualifying Shareholders who hold their Ordinary Shares in certificated form, is expected to be posted to Shareholders on 29 December 2025. Details of the expected Open Offer timeline are included below.

EXPECTED TIMETABLE OF PRINCIPAL EVENTS REGARDING THE PLACING AND OPEN OFFER

Open Offer Record Time

6.00 p.m. on 19 December 2025

Date Existing Ordinary Shares marked ‘ex-entitlement’ by the London Stock Exchange

22 December 2025

Date of posting of the Circular and Application Forms

29 December 2025

Open Offer Entitlements and excess entitlements credited to CREST stock accounts of Qualifying CREST Shareholders

30 December 2025

Admission and commencement of dealings in the Placing Shares and Interest Shares on AIM expected to commence

8.00 a.m. on 31 December 2025

Recommended latest time and date for requesting withdrawal of Open Offer Entitlements and excess entitlements from CREST

4.30 p.m. on 9 January 2026

Latest time and date for depositing Open Offer Entitlements and excess entitlements into CREST

3.00 p.m. on 12 January 2026

Latest time and date for splitting Application Forms (to satisfy bona fide market claims in relation to Open Offer Entitlements only)

3.00 p.m. on 13 January 2026

Latest time and date for receipt of completed Application Forms and payment in full from Qualifying Shareholders under the Open Offer or settlement of the relevant CREST instructions (as appropriate)

11.00 a.m. on 15 January 2026

Results of the Open Offer expected to be announced through a Regulatory Information Service

16 January 2026

Admission and commencement of dealings in the Open Offer Shares on AIM expected to commence

8.00 a.m. on 21 January 2026

Expected date for CREST accounts to be credited with the Open Offer Shares in uncertificated form

As soon as practicable after 8.00 a.m. on 21 January 2026

Expected date for dispatch of definitive certificates in respect of the Open Offer Shares to be issued in certificated form

By 10 February 2026

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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