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Commentary: Oil price, Genel, GKP, Buccaneer

26/09/2025

WTI (Nov). $64.98 -1c, Brent (Nov) $69.42 +11c, Diff -$4.44 +12c
USNG (Oct) $2.90 +4c, UKNG (Oct) 80.79p +0.52p, TTF (Oct) €32.7 +€0.355

Oil price

Oil is flat today but will be plenty up on the week after Russia has been centre of attention. Inventories helped and the market is certainly a bit tighter than expected.

BP has yet again fallen flat on its     back as it has had to change its view about peak oil, last year it said it would be 2025 but yesterday it backtracked and pushed that out to 2030, only the IEA can make bigger snafu’s. 

Genel Energy

Genel Energy welcomes that agreements have been reached between the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government and a group of international oil companies to resume exports of crude oil produced in Kurdistan through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline.

The Company continues to sell oil produced from the Tawke licence domestically on a cash up front basis and notes the release made by DNO this morning.

DNO Updates Status of Tawke License Oil Exports

Oslo, 26 September 2025 – DNO ASA, the Norwegian oil and gas operator, today announced that it been instructed to prepare for commencement of oil exports through the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline on 27 September 2025, following agreements reached between the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government and a group of international oil companies.

DNO accordingly will deliver the Kurdistan Regional Government’s share of sales from the Company’s operated Tawke license, currently averaging 38,000 barrels a day, for export. The balance of the oil, representing the share of sales the foreign contractor group consisting of DNO and Genel Energy International Limited, currently averaging 30,000 barrels a day, will continue to be sold to local buyers under existing contracts.

“DNO is pleased that exports of oil from the Kurdistan Region have been unlocked and will now flow to international markets,” said Executive Chairman Bijan Mossavar-Rahmani. “We have elected not to engage directly in exports at this time and will continue to sell our oil on a monthly, cash-and-carry, basis to our buyers at a per barrel price in the low USD 30s,” he explained.

“But we understand our buyers have set up their own arrangements to place oil purchased from us into the export pipeline, a move we welcome as it supports the larger export project,” Mr. Mossavar-Rahmani said.

The term of the current agreements between the Federal Government of Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government and those international oil companies which are participating ends at yearend, with the first payment of USD 14 per barrel (after deduction of transportation costs) expected in mid-December. That figure will be adjusted in 2026 based on an evaluation of “commercial models and contracts” by a Baghdad-designated consultant.

“DNO has just launched a major production expansion program at the Tawke and Peshkabir fields to replace equipment damaged during the July drone attacks, followed by the drilling of eight wells in 2026 targeting production of 100,000 barrels a day,” said Mr. Mossavar-Rahmani. “We can only support such an ambitious program with immediate, predictable and continuous flow of funds,” he said, “Maybe looking back we will have left some money on the table, maybe not, but surely we will generate significantly greater value from the investments we are making not just for us, but for all Iraqis,” he added.

Very good news that all the rumours this week have been confirmed and DNO and Genel and the speak from DNO above makes it plain that they will do what is best for the partners, especially given the current ‘major production expansion program at Tawke and Peshkabir’. 

I look forward to seeing how the early days map out but remain certain that this is fantastic for Genel and totally justifies the way that they have handled the situation of recent years.

Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Gulf Keystone has announced that the Company, along with several other International Oil Companies operating in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, has signed agreements with the Kurdistan Regional Government and the Federal Government of Iraq to enable the restart of international crude exports from Kurdistan.

Pipeline exports from the Shaikan Field are expected to restart in the coming days.

The agreements to restart Kurdistan crude exports are in full compliance with Iraq’s 2023-2025 Budget Law while maintaining the sanctity of Kurdistan’s Production Sharing Contracts (“PSCs”). The Budget Law provides for an interim period, currently anticipated to be around three months, during which IOCs will be compensated for exported production to cover the costs of production and transportation. As a result, the Company expects an improvement in Shaikan Field realised prices to above $30/bbl in this interim period compared to $27-28/bbl in local sales. Subsequently, a reconciliation to full PSC entitlement at international prices (adjusted for crude quality and transportation costs) is expected following a review of IOC invoices and contractual costs conducted during the interim period by an international independent consultant.

The Iraqi State Organization for Marketing of Oil (“SOMO”) will transport the crude from Fishkhabour in Kurdistan to Ceyhan in Türkiye while the KRG and the IOCs will market Kurdistan crude at the Kirkuk blend official selling price. The Company and other IOCs will be paid from the sale of their allocation at Ceyhan via a nominated trader who will deposit the sales proceeds into an escrow account at an international bank before the funds are disbursed to the IOCs. During the interim period, the Company will continue to engage with the KRG regarding a payment mechanism for the outstanding October 2022 to March 2023 receivable balance as part of broader ongoing negotiations to resolve other Shaikan commercial matters. A further announcement will be made if and when appropriate.

Jon Harris, Gulf Keystone’s Chief Executive Officer, said:
“The restart of Kurdistan crude exports via the Iraq-Türkiye Pipeline is a historic milestone for Gulf Keystone, Kurdistan and Iraq that is expected to unlock significant value for all stakeholders. A return to international sales prices will be transformative for the Company’s cash flow while we believe the signed agreements with the KRG and FGI, along with the Production Sharing Contracts, will facilitate long term profitable investment in Kurdistan’s oil and gas reserves, of which the Shaikan Field accounts for a significant portion. We are delighted to have reached this successful resolution and are looking forward to the future as we remain focused on driving value for Gulf Keystone shareholders.”

Again very good news for GKP and as the company says ‘will be transformative for the company’s cash flow’ and as the situation unfolds we shall see how the management rebuild the company amidst what will be clamours from shareholders.

Corcel

Corcel has announced that it has received notice from Charlestown Energy Partners, certain of the Company’s directors, and other private investors of the exercise of 50,000,000 Warrants at an exercise price of £0.005 per share, raising £250,000 in new funds for the Company at a premium to the prevailing share price. At the same time, the Company has agreed to extend the expiry date of a further 116,500,000 warrants, also exercisable at £0.005 per share,  originally issued to Shandong New Powder COSMO (“SNPC”) (the “Extended Warrants”) from 12 December 2025 to 12 December 2026 and has permitted the transfer of 75,000,000 of the Extended Warrants to the investors who have exercised the Warrants.

Corcel director Yan Zhao indirectly owns 48% of SNPC.

Scott Gilbert Corcel CEO commented:
“We are very pleased to see investor confidence in the Company being reflected in the exercise of the Warrants at a significant premium to the current share price.  We continue to make important progress across our assets and our business development efforts are generating value-enhancing opportunities.”

I remain very positive about Corcel and had expected this exercising of warrants as in my previous note, at a 40% premium rarely can investors been more confident and the inclusion of Charlestown Energy Partners is supreme belief in the company. 

With the recently announced seismic starting soon and be processed in 1Q 2026 with results after that I think that Corcel will drill KON-16 in 2Q 2026. I added the company to the Bucket List in June and with a TP of 2p I stay a big fan. 

Buccaneer

Buccaneer has announced its unaudited results for the six-month period ended 30 June 2025. A copy of the Interim Results is available on the Company’s website, www.buccaneerenergy.co.uk

Financial Highlights:

  • $888,956 Revenue for the period (30 June 2024: $938,000)
  • $276,000 profit before Capex and non-cash items (depletion, depreciation, amortisation and interest)  (30 June 2024: $230,000)
  • $944,232 loss for the period (30 June 2024: $792,000 loss)

Operational and Strategic Highlights:

  • 13,930 barrels oil total production net for the period (30 June 2024: 13,203 barrels oil)
  • Completion of Phase 2 Workover program in Pine Mills
  • Approval of next development drilling location in the Fouke area (Allar #1)

Post-period events:

  • Staking of the Allar #1 development drilling location in the Fouke area (Formerly Fouke #3)
  • Entered into a contract with BitGo for the storage and trading of Bitcoin and appointed Applod Inc as a Bitcoin and Blockchain adviser.
  • On 19 August 2025, the Company raised £600,000 (before expenses) through a placing and subscription of 4,000,000,000 new ordinary shares with proceeds to be used to fund the drilling of two development locations in the Fouke area

Chairman’s Report

The first six months of 2025 built on the work begun in 2024 to focus on organic growth in our existing East Texas assets at Pine Mills whilst actively identifying and pursuing new opportunities in Texas and nearby states.

The second phase of our workover program on existing Pine Mills wells has yielded increased production volumes and enhanced well reliability. This was funded by a £500,000 placing of new shares in March 2025.

Work on the existing seismic and well databases continued, yielding two attractive new well locations at Pine Mills that we believe share production characteristics similar to those of the Fouke 1 and Fouke 2 wells. These wells would access an area of the field that appears not to have so far been produced and could hold more than 300,000 barrels of oil. With the existing maximum “field allowable rate” of 124 bopd/well gross already granted by the Texas Railroad Commission and the expectation that the reservoir is more than capable of delivering this, we are looking forward to the results of these wells.

In January 2025, our credit facility with WAFD was renewed on favourable terms for an additional three years.  The interest rate on this facility is indexed to the US Federal Funds rate and is anticipated to decrease in the near term.  We have already seen the first 25 basis point decrease and anticipate further cuts in rates during the remainder of 2025. These rate decreases reduce our monthly coupon payments, further lowering our interest payments and providing cash that can be invested into our ongoing operations. The size of the facility will be redetermined after the results of the Fouke area development wells are complete and we anticipate it increasing as a result.

In June 2025, to reflect the new direction of the Company, Nostra Terra Oil & Gas Company plc was renamed Buccaneer Energy plc, its logo changed and its website updated.

Post period-end and staying in Pine Mills, a successful fundraise in August saw £600,000 raised to fund our share of drilling the next two development locations in the Fouke area. At the same time we added OAK Securities as joint broker to the Company. OAK bring extensive experience of both conventional oil & gas and bitcoin mining. By potentially being utilised to power the mining of bitcoin at the wellsite, otherwise unmonetisable gas produced from our operations may be used to improve both the environmental outcome and Buccaneer’s revenue stream. In assessing this opportunity, the Company is ensuring it is properly advised by the appointment of bitcoin specialists Appold and equipped with an official custodian and provider of liquidity by entering into agreements with BitGo.

In addition, a number of attractive acquisition opportunities have been, and continue to be, assessed by Buccaneer within our existing core geographic areas.

On behalf of the board of Buccaneer, I would like to thank shareholders for their continued support.

Dr Stephen Staley, Chairman, 26 September 2025

Chief Executive Officer’s report

Production increased in the first half of the year, resulting from the completion of the workover programs in the Pine Mills field.

Revenue was $888,956 during the first half of the year (30 June 2024: $938,000). Net loss from operations for the period was $944,232 (30 June 2024: $792,000 loss). Average oil sales prices during the period were $63.81 per barrel (30 June 2024: $74.45 per barrel).

Production increases, which started in the 4th quarter of 2024, continued into the reporting period.  The second phase of the workover program commenced in late December 2024 and was completed during the 1st quarter of 2025. Average monthly oil production in Pine Mills (excluding the existing Fouke wells) peaked in May 25 at 94 bopd gross, which was an almost doubling of the average rate prior to the workover program start-up.  Post period saw a temporary decrease in production due to significant rain and storm activity in the field area, which deposited twice the precipitation compared to the 30-year average, resulting in localized flooding in the field.  However, once the storms ended in late summer, Pine Mills oil production rebounded, reaching a peak of 185 bopd on 31 August 2025 and is currently averaging approximately 84 bopd during September 2025 to date. The field still has 3 wells down, due to storm activity, accounting for approximately 20-25 bopd, which the Company plans to bring back on to production during the next month.

Production in the Fouke area remained steady during the period, at approximately 100 bopd gross (WI 32.5%, net 33 bopd), while production in West Texas also remained steady at 10 bopd net to the Company’s working interest during the period.   

Finally, concurrent with the approval of the next development locations in the Fouke area, the Company has initiated several technical studies on monetizing locally produced gas in the Fouke area.  The results of those studies determined that providing gas/energy to a Bitcoin Mining operation was the best option for this resource.  Post period, evaluations of multiple options for the development of a bitcoin mining operation in the Fouke area are underway with the Company reviewing the optimum commercial strategy, with the target deployment being the late 1st quarter of 2026.  

The implementation of a successful strategy to monetise this gas is subject to a number of further steps including the drilling result from the new development wells. This includes entering into an agreement with a Bitcoin miner on suitable terms and further assessment of potential sites for a future operation.

Lastly, on 23 September 2025, the location of the next development location in the Fouke area was staked.  This well will be named the Allar #1 (formerly Fouke #3) and is anticipated to be spud in late October 2025, but timing of rig arrival is dependent upon the completion of the drilling activity of the wells on the rig operator’s schedule before the Allar #1.

I also wish to sincerely thank our shareholders for their continued support. I look forward to updating you as we continue to grow our company.

Paul Welch, Chief Executive Officer, 26 September 2025

Nothing to add to this detailed report, I have previously said that Paul Welch and team are doing a good job turning round this business and have been backed by smart investors as they do it. Without doubt one for the radar screen, watch this space…

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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