The UK’s offshore energy industry is at a critical point. Decisions made this year will shape our country’s energy security, economic growth and progress towards net zero for decades to come.

Almost 40% of the UK’s energy is already imported, while production from the North Sea continues to decline. Without new investment and continued licensing, this reliance on imports will only grow. That would mean fewer skilled jobs, reduced tax revenues and a greater dependence on higher carbon energy from overseas.

Offshore Energies UK’s Future of the North Sea campaign sets out a pragmatic plan for a secure, homegrown energy future. This vision includes sustaining more than 200,000 jobs across the UK, unlocking up to £165 billion of additional value for the economy, and enabling over £200 billion of investment in oil and gas alongside renewables, carbon capture and hydrogen by 2035.

We are asking government to commit to continued licensing, to reform the Energy Profits Levy before 2030 to restore investor confidence, and to deliver a long-term energy strategy that recognises the importance of oil and gas as a strategic national asset while accelerating low-carbon technologies.

The campaign also calls on the public to play their part. In just two minutes, anyone can use the campaign tool to email their MP and urge them to back a balanced, homegrown energy plan.

Email your MP today

The choice is clear. We can invest in UK jobs, skills and resources or become increasingly dependent on imports. The future of the North Sea is in our hands.

North Sea Forecast Cut Represents £50.6billion Hit to UK Economy

The news that the North Sea is set to produce one billion fewer barrels of oil than previously forecast has been calculated by OEUK to equal a £50.6billion hit to the UK economy.

On Monday, the North Sea Transition Authority (NSTA), which reports to Energy Secretary Ed Miliband, cut its estimate for output between 2025 and 2050 by 124 million tonnes of oil equivalent.

That works out as 920 million barrels of oil. And now, OEUK has calculated this corresponds to a devastating hit of more than £50billion to the economy.

Ben Ward, market intelligence manager, OEUK, said: 
"This adjustment can be attributed to the fiscal, regulatory and policy uncertainty that has been seen in the UK over the past few years, instead of changes to the UKCS’s geology.

"The implications for the UK’s energy balance, fiscal receipts, and industrial output are material. OEUK modelling indicates the removal of 920 million boe from UKCS production corresponds to a reduction of £50.6 billion in gross value added (GVA) to the UK economy, based on historical GVA figures generated by Experian for OEUK and production figures."

The sharp drop in projected North Sea production would mean the UK is forced to rely more heavily on imports at greater cost to the environment and the industry.

Ben continued: 
"The current projections from the NSTA indicate production could fall to 620,000 boe/day by 2030.

"The revised production outlook implies increased reliance on imported hydrocarbons.

"OEUK estimates that by 2030, up to 80% of UK oil and gas demand could be met by imports. This shift increases exposure to global market volatility and geopolitical risk, with implications for price stability and supply chain resilience. 

"To mitigate the economic and industrial impact of declining production, OEUK recommends fiscal reform by 2026, acceleration of electrification, support for domestic production, and infrastructure longevity planning. These measures are detailed in OEUK’s 2025 Economic Report.

"Under current fiscal conditions, the sector and the UK economy face a potential loss of £41billion in capital investment and £137billion in GVA between 2025 and 2050, when compared to ending the EPL in 2026.

"If fiscal reform were introduced in 2026 – specifically replacing the Energy Profits Levy (EPL) with a successor mechanism – the sector could unlock an additional 2.5 billion boe in production, £12billion in tax revenue, £137billion in GVA, over the next 25 years."

These figures can be found in OEUK’s “Impact of UKCS Fiscal Policy on UK Economic Growth 2025” paper. 

Responding to the slashed production forecast, Claire Coutinho, the Tory shadow energy secretary, said: 
“This is complete insanity. Ed Miliband is costing the UK a billion barrels of oil… He needs to get a grip, scrap the energy price levy, end the ban on new oil and gas licences and back the North Sea.”

A UK Government spokesman said: 
“While oil and gas will continue to play an important role for decades to come, independent data from the NSTA shows that production has steadily declined for the past 20 years, with the UK becoming a net importer since 2003.

“We are delivering a fair and orderly transition in the North Sea to drive growth and secure tens of thousands of skilled jobs, with the biggest ever investment in offshore wind and three first-of-a-kind carbon capture and storage clusters.”

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Offshore Energies UK