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Commentary: Oil price, Touchstone, Rockhopper

07/07/2025

WTI (Aug) $67.00 u/c*, Brent (Sep) $68.30 -50c, Diff -$1.30 -50c*
USNG (Sep) $3.41 u/c*, UKNG (Sep) 79.65p -0.86p, TTF (Sep) €33.115 -€0.71

*Denotes market closed for July 4th Holiday

Oil price

After the US holiday on Friday Opec+ met yesterday and decided to increase production by some 584/- b/d, this was well above recent increases of 411/- and intended to give back to those countries who took the hit back in 2023. 

The cartel are clearly doing one of a number of things and what comes to mind is of course market share, they see current lower prices and want their slice of the cake. Actually they also said that they were doing it ‘due to current healthy market fundamentals’ and that they see low inventories and ‘steady Global growth’. 

So, today oil is actually higher by around 50 cents which one might have not guessed right after the meeting and if that increase holds then maybe demand may just be better than expected.

Touchstone Exploration

Touchstone has provided an operational update on the Cascadura-5 development well (“Cas-5”), located on the Ortoire block onshore in the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. Touchstone has an 80 percent operating working interest in the well, with Heritage Petroleum Company Limited holding the remaining 20 percent. 

The Cas-5 well was spud on June 4, 2025, using Star Valley Drilling Rig #205 and was drilled to a total depth of 7,020 feet over 22 days. Following open-hole logging operations, the well was cased for future production. 

The primary target of the Cas-5 well was the Herrera Gr7bc sands, which are prevalent in the Cascadura structure. Cas-5 is the second well drilled into the B block of the Cascadura structure and encountered approximately 620 feet of gross sand. The targeted reservoir intervals were observed approximately 300 feet updip of the Cascadura-2 well, which was drilled in the first quarter of 2024.

The original planned total depth of the well was 6,654 feet. Based on encouraging drill cuttings and mud logging data indicating continued hydrocarbon presence, drilling was extended to 7,020 feet. Wireline logging, mud logging, and drill cuttings data collectively suggest that hydrocarbon-bearing sands are present throughout the primary Gr7bc interval.

When funding is available, the drilling rig is expected to be mobilized to complete operations at the nearby Cascadura-4 well (“Cas-4”), which is currently cased to a depth of 3,200 feet. Cas-4 is also targeting the Herrera sands, with a planned total depth of approximately 6,500 feet.

Upon drilling Cas-4, the Company intends to complete and tie-in Cas-4 and Cas-5 into the Cascadura natural gas facility. All required tie-in equipment is currently on location. 

Paul R. Baay, President and Chief Executive Officer, commented:
“Cas-5 was drilled on schedule and on budget, with field-estimated costs of approximately US$5 million, despite extending the target depth. The performance of our new drilling team, along with the use of synthetic oil-based mud and managed pressure drilling, was instrumental in delivering a successful operation. We encountered no material issues during drilling, which we attribute to improvements implemented following previous challenges. The hydrocarbon intervals observed align with or exceed our pre-drill expectations and continue to enhance our understanding of the Cascadura structure as we integrate ongoing seismic interpretation.”

This is excellent news for Touchstone, an operational success is just what was wanted after the fiasco of the unfunded placing commitments and Cas-5 coming in ahead of pre-drill estimates and being on schedule and budget is a welcome relief. 

This is the second well into the B block of the Cascadura structure and it encountered some 620 feet of gross sand updip of the Cas-2 well drilled last year. The original planned total depth of the well was 6,654 feet. Based on encouraging drill cuttings and mud logging data indicating continued hydrocarbon presence, drilling was extended to 7,020 feet. Wireline logging, mud logging, and drill cuttings data collectively suggest that hydrocarbon-bearing sands are present throughout the primary Gr7bc interval.

Other good news was that the new drilling team performed well, ‘along with the use of synthetic oil-based mud and managed pressure drilling, was instrumental in delivering a successful operation. We encountered no material issues during drilling, which we attribute to improvements implemented following previous challenges.

Whilst there will be a small delay, and I don’t know the company’s optionality with regard to the unfunded placing commitments, they can then go straight to Cas-4 and once drilled can tie in 4 and 5 and tie into the natural gas facility.

Placing update

The Company continues to evaluate its options regarding the unfunded placing commitments and will issue a further announcement as soon as practicable.

Rockhopper Exploration

Rockhopper has provided the following update in respect of the insurance policy announced on 14th October 2024 and intended to protect against an unsuccessful outcome in the Ombrina Mare ICSID arbitration. 

Following the annulment of the award by the ad hoc Panel, as announced on 3rd June 2025, Rockhopper submitted claims and statements of loss under the terms of the insurance policy.  

The lead insurer has confirmed that the loss has been triggered and, as a result, Rockhopper is therefore confident it will receive the full €31 million amount to which it is entitled under the policy. The Company will make a further announcement once the funds are received.

Rockhopper intends to submit a new request for arbitration and is in discussion with the new funder (announced on 20 December 2023) with regard to the timing of this new request.  A further release will be made as and when appropriate.

So, as announced when the decision was made recently, Rockhopper has said that it expects the full €31m from the insurance having submitted all the necessary paperwork. It has also said that it plans to submit a new request for arbitration and is in discussions in that regard. 

All this means that the Sea Lion project gets closer, with its money RKH will be able to fund its share of the development and of course Navitas, who have been making very positive noises about the imminent FID are about to get first oil from the giant Shenandoah field in the. Gulf of America. 

Rockhopper shares have been surging recently in anticipation of Sea Lion going ahead and with Navitas suggesting an imminent FID and of course Borders & Southern relighting interest in the South Falklands under new and exciting management not far away the province is getting a new lease of life.

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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