The Climate Change Committee (CCC), have set out their advice on the level of Scotland’s four carbon budgets (covering the period 2026 to 2045). This is the first time that the Scottish Government has requested these from the Committee, but the model is already used for the UK Government, Northern Ireland Assembly, and the Welsh Parliament.

CCC recommend that the Scottish Government sets its carbon budgets, including Scotland’s share of international aviation and shipping emissions, at annual average levels of emissions that are:

• 57% lower than 1990 levels for the First Carbon Budget (2026 to 2030).
• 69% lower than 1990 levels for the Second Carbon Budget (2031 to 2035).
• 80% lower than 1990 levels for the Third Carbon Budget (2036 to 2040).
• 94% lower than 1990 levels for the Fourth Carbon Budget (2041 to 2045).

These carbon budgets are given as five-year average percentage reductions from 1990 levels. As of 2022, emissions were 50% below 1990 levels. Delivering these budgets will have a net cost of around 0.4% of Scotland’s GDP per year but will come with significant wider economic benefits for Scotland. These include savings to the economy and households from using more efficient, electric technologies

Interim Chair of the Climate Change Committee, Professor Piers Forster, said:  
“Scotland’s new system of carbon budgets will help guide the action we need to get to Net Zero by 2045. We’re delighted to be able to present a good news story about how Scotland can decarbonise.

“But we do need to see action now. The Scottish Government has devolved powers to deliver the necessary emissions reductions in key sectors, particularly buildings, surface transport, agriculture, and land use. We encourage them to exercise these powers as quickly and fully as possible.”

Electrification is the way forward  

Electric technologies are now the clear low-carbon choice in many areas. Heat pumps and electric vehicles (EVs) are available today and could be deployed rapidly as they have been in other countries, provided the right incentives are in place. Models to follow include Norway and Denmark on the roll out of EVs, and Sweden and Finland on the roll out of heat pumps. Almost half of emissions reductions in our pathway come from electrification, particularly the roll-out of EVs and heat pumps and the remaining decarbonisation of electricity generation.

Heat and transport policy are devolved areas of policy, offering opportunities for the Scottish Government to lead the way on helping the public and businesses get access to new technologies and services.

Clean, efficient, electric technologies can offer wider benefits such as reduced air pollution and lower and less volatile energy bills compared to continued reliance on fossil fuel technologies. In our pathway for Scotland we have the below:

• Renewables: the capacity of offshore and onshore wind and solar more than triples from 15 GW in 2023 to 49 GW by 2035, increasing to 66 GW by 2045. This provides 98% of electricity generation in Scotland in 2035 and caters for increasing demand in Scotland and the rest of Great Britain.
• EVs: by 2035, around three-fifths of cars and vans on Scottish roads will by fully electric (compared to 2.2% for cars and 0.8% for vans in 2023). By 2045, this rises to 94% of cars and vans.
• Heat pumps: by 2035, 40% of existing homes are heated by low-carbon electric systems in our pathway. The majority of these are heated by a heat pump, either as standalone or communal systems, with the rest heated by heat networks or direct electric systems. By 2045, 92% of existing homes have low-carbon heat, reaching all homes by 2050.

Recommendations

We have 18 priority recommendations for immediate action to put Scotland on track to deliver the carbon budgets. Core themes include:

• Supporting households to install low-carbon heating. Scotland needs to rapidly transition to low-carbon electrified heat. While the transition should lead to lower energy bills for consumers, continued support is needed to address barriers in upfront costs, especially for low-income households. The Scottish Government urgently needs to develop an alternative to the abandoned proposals in the Heat in Buildings bill for regulations to upgrade properties at the point of sale. This will need to enable a rapid transition from fossil-fuel heating systems to low-carbon heating in privately owned homes, supporting the proposed heating decarbonisation target. The Scottish Government will need to develop governance frameworks to allow for the installation of communal low-carbon heating systems, where these are appropriate (in particular, in tenements).
• Supporting households to install home insulation measures. It is also important to provide effective support to households, particularly those on low incomes, to install home insulation measures. The Scottish Government should urgently consult on the details of the proposed minimum energy efficiency standards for privately owned homes, noting that delaying this further could have negative impacts on fuel poverty in Scotland.
• Expanding EV charging and travel infrastructure. The Scottish Government should support the deployment of public charge points across Scotland. The number of public EV charge points per capita in Scotland is 7% higher than the UK average but will need to continue to increase in line with EV uptake. With prices for new and second-hand EVs falling, there is an opportunity for rapid take-up provided the right infrastructure is in place and people are provided with accessible, accurate information on their benefits. Scotland should also invest to improve public transport services and active travel infrastructure.
• Farming and nature. Long-term certainty is needed on public funding for farming practices and technologies to reduce emissions from managing crops and livestock. The Scottish Government should provide incentives and markets for farmers and land managers to diversify their incomes for actions including woodland creation, peatland restoration, agroforestry, and renewable energy.
• Engagement. The Scottish Government should work with the UK Government to develop the existing engagement strategy. This should provide clear, trusted information about the most impactful low-carbon choices for households and businesses in Scotland to reduce emissions, and the benefits of low-carbon choices, signposting to available sources of advice and support.
• Jobs and industry. The Scottish Government should continue to work with the UK Government to support the development of plans to develop CCS and hydrogen in the Scottish Cluster and work with the UK Government to develop new low-carbon industrial opportunities, such as those identified by Project Willow for Grangemouth. The Scottish Government should work with communities, workers, and businesses to develop proactive transition plans that enable access to secure employment and business opportunities that come with the Net Zero transition.
• Make electricity cheaper. One of the Committee’s key recommendations is that the UK Government acts to make electricity cheaper. The UK Government should remove policy costs and levies from electricity bills. The Scottish Government should work with the Westminster Government to ensure it happens, as it will impact Scotland’s ability to decarbonise at the pace it has set itself.