Rockhopper Exploration, the oil and gas company with key interests in the North Falkland Basin ("NFB"), notes the recent publication by Navitas Petroleum of and an updated NFB independent resource report conducted by Netherland Sewell & Associates ("NSAI") (the "March 2025 NSAI Independent Report") on behalf of Navitas. The report reflects work carried out to mature the resource base and accelerates later phases of the development programme in the build up to FID. Overall resources at Sea Lion remain unchanged. As a result of the work carried out, a significant number of barrels have been moved from 'Development On Hold' to 'Development Pending' classification.

March 2025 NSAI Independent Report

The new March 2025 NSAI report, which Rockhopper has not reviewed, categorises the Sea Lion resources into the following developments:

• Northern area, 3 phases
• Central area, 2 phases
• Northern Area Phases 1 and 2 will be developed using a redeployed and upgraded FPSO that is expected to be secured upon FID.  
• Northern Area phase 3 and the Central Area Phases 1 and 2 will require a substantially larger replacement FPSO to be identified and secured.

The Development on Hold category of 178 MMbbls 2C includes gross resources within Sea Lion and Isobel/Elaine, that could be developed under future phases but for which there is currently no published development plan.

Key Information

2C Contingent Resources (Development Pending) phased development concept for the Sea Lion field:

• 64 wells
• Phased Development

Northern Area

• Phase 1: 11 wells, 6 pre drilled, 170mmbbls
• Phase 2: 12 wells, 149mmbbls
• Phase 3: 16 wells, 95mmbbls

Central Area

• Phase 1: 12 wells, 212 mmbbls
• Phase 2: 13 wells, 102 mmbbls
• Total barrels developed (all phases) 730 mmbbls
• Phase 1 + Phase 2 peak production rate 55,000 bbls/day, increasing up to 150,000 bbls/day once all phases have been developed

Navitas continues to estimate Capex to first oil on phase 1 of c$1.4 bn and in this regard has entered into a number of FEED agreements including an MOU for an FPSO which is currently operating in the North Sea, along with various agreements relating to the provision of subsea equipment. Navitas's target for FID also remains mid-year 2025.

Navitas published the March 2025 NSAI Independent Report which is available on Navitas' website, and contains the following resource estimates (rounded, for oil only):

*Totals may not sum precisely due to rounding adjustments

As the project moves further along the path towards FID, Rockhopper intends to commission its own Independent Resource Evaluation which will be published later this year.

Rockhopper holds a 35% working interest in Sea Lion and associated NFB licences and benefits from various loans from Navitas in relation to the development, which are detailed in previous announcements.

At long last it looks like Sea Lion is finally looking like it’s getting close to development, the Navitas CPR showing 730m b’s of 2C resources that means Rockhopper’s 35% gives them 255m b’s. With a CPR from RKH on the way I think we can genuinely expect some visibility in the development of Sea Lion with Navitas expecting FID later in the year.

I have put a call into Sam so hope to add more later in the week but he hasn’t commented here so maybe they are keeping their heads down. Readers know that I have been a real bull of the Falklands basin for many years, even Tony Durrant at Premier got fed up with my constant badgering and now it looks as close as it has ever been. 

The shares are finally responding and I have had them as a buy through thick and thin, often way too optimistic but now at long last that is being rewarded and I think that the upside remains substantial. Today we can see real progress being made, in addition to a FID this year contracts are being signed which must be a good sign. 

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog