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Upstream Capital Expenditure Update

24/01/2025

The following update is a review of selected upstream company capital expenditure plans for 2025, captured from news and profiles that feature in KeyFacts Energy.

Athabasca Oil

Athabasca is planning capital expenditures of ~$335 million with average production of 37,500 – 39,500 boe/d (98% Liquids) and an exit rate of ~41,000 boe/d. Growth in production comes from the expansion plans at Leismer and development of the Duvernay assets.

APA Corporation

In 2025, as a result of a softer oil price outlook, APA plans to reduce capital to $2.5 to $2.6 billion, of which, $200 million is allocated to Suriname development activity and $100 million to other exploration, primarily in Alaska. At this investment level, the company expects to run an eight-rig program in the Permian Basin and a 12-rig program in Egypt, which includes one rig dedicated to natural gas following the signing of a new gas pricing agreement. The company expects this program will roughly sustain adjusted oil production in the U.S. and Egypt, while delivering mid-single digit adjusted BOE growth.

Baytex Energy 

Baytex has approved a budget for 2025 exploration and development expenditures of $1.2 to $1.3 billion, which is designed to generate average annual production of 150,000 to 154,000 boe/d. The 2025 budget is based on a US$65/bbl WTI price and generates stable production compared to 2024. 

Operated production represents approximately 85% of total corporate volumes, and is forecast to increase 1% in 2025 compared to 2024. The company's production profile for 2025 will reflect a reduction in non-operated Eagle Ford volumes due to reduced activity in late 2024 and early 2025. 

The 2025 capital program is expected to be 60% weighted to the first half of the year. Baytex plan to direct 55% to 60% of the exploration and development expenditures to their Eagle Ford light oil assets in the United States and 40% to 45% to their Canadian assets. In Canada, the capital program is expected to be equally split between light oil and heavy oil. 

Canadian Natural Resources

Canadian Natural's 2025 operating capital budget is approximately $6  billion, and includes capital related to a number of acquisitions for which agreements between parties have been reached, with closings targeted in Q1/25, subject to regulatory approvals and other customary closing conditions. With this capital, the Company is targeting production growth in 2025 as well as mid to long-term production and capacity growth. In addition, the Company has approved approximately $135 million of capital, consisting of $90 million related to carbon capture and $45 million related to a one-time office move. 

Canadian Natural is targeting a production guidance range of 1,510  MBOE/d to 1,555  MBOE/d in 2025, which represents growth of approximately 170 MBOE/d or 12% over 2024 levels, based on the mid-point of the range. 

Cenovus

Capital investment of between $4.6 billion to $5.0 billion includes approximately $3.2 billion of maintenance and sustaining capital and $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion of growth capital.

Cenovus plans to invest $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion in its oil sands assets, including approximately $600 million to $700 million of growth capital.

The company plans to invest between $350 million and $400 million in its conventional assets. Capital will be primarily used to maintain production, with a limited amount directed to production growth.

Capital spending in the Offshore segment of between $0.9 billion and $1.0 billion will be primarily directed towards completion of the West White Rose project.

Chevron

Upstream spending is expected to be about $13 billion, of which roughly two-thirds is allocated to develop Chevron’s U.S. portfolio. Permian Basin spend is lower than the 2024 budget and anticipated to be between $4.5 and $5.0 billion as production growth is reduced in favor of free cash flow. The remaining U.S. investment is split between the DJ Basin and the Gulf of Mexico, where deepwater growth projects continue to ramp and are expected to deliver offshore production of 300 mboed in 2026. In International, about $1.0 billion is allocated to Australia, which include Gorgon backfill investments.

Downstream capex is expected to be approximately $1.2 billion, with two-thirds allocated to the U.S. Within total upstream and downstream budgets, about $1.5 billion of capex is dedicated to lowering the carbon intensity of our operations and growing New Energies businesses. Corporate and other capex is expected to be around $0.7 billion.

Tengizchevroil LLP’s budget is less than half of the affiliate capex as the Future Growth Project is projected to achieve first oil in the first half of 2025. The remaining affiliate spend primarily supports Chevron Phillips Chemical Company LLC, which includes the Golden Triangle Polymers and Ras Laffan Petrochemical Projects.

CNOOC Limited

CNOOC’s capital expenditure will remain flat. In 2025, the total capital expenditure is budgeted at RMB125 to RMB135 billion, of which, the capital expenditures for exploration, development and production will account for approximately 16%, 61% and 20% of the total, respectively. The Company’s capital expenditure for the year 2024 has been well implemented, which is expected to reach approximately RMB132 billion.

Enbridge

Enbridge expects to deploy approximately $7 billion of capital in 2025, exclusive of maintenance capital. The financing plan includes approximately $9 billion of debt issuances in 2025 which is substantially earmarked for the refinancing of $7 billion of debt maturities, with no external equity required.

Energean

Energean's 2025 development and production capital expenditure will be between $400-430 million. Of this, $380-400 million is in Israel (which includes around $50 million of underspend carried over from 2024). The vast majority of this expenditure is associated with the Katlan development, while the remainder is for the completion of the second oil train and other asset integrity and maintenance expenditure. In Europe, a $20-30 million budget includes infill drilling on the Scott field in the UK (W.I. 10%; non-operated) as well as other routine annual maintenance costs in the UK and Greece. 2025 decommissioning expenditure will be $55-65 million, all of which is associated with the UK and reflecting the peak year of spend for the decommissioning of the Tors (W.I. 68%; operated) and Wenlock (W.I. 80%; operated fields.

Frontera Energy

Frontera plans to invest between $216 to $268 million in total capital in 2025, a 20% reduction compared at the midpoint of their 2024 guidance. The 2025 capital and production plan focuses on the most productive and profitable assets in the portfolio, building on the Company's successful heavy asset drilling campaign in 2024 in the Quifa and CPE-6 blocks.

Frontera expects to deliver a full year production of 41,000 – 43,000 boe/d for 2025, an increase of 2% in production at the midpoint compared to 2024 levels and anticipates generating consolidated Operating EBITDA of $370-$415 million at $75/bbl and $420-$465 million at $80/bbl average Brent prices.

GeoPark

GeoPark's $275-310 million CAPEX program will support production of 35,000 boepd (± 2,500 boepd range) across Colombia (26,000 boepd), Vaca Muerta (7,400 boepd), Ecuador (1,000 boepd) and Brazil (600 boepd). The production mix is expected to be approximately 97% oil and 3% natural gas, with 22% unconventional and 78% conventional.

The activity set considers drilling 23-31 gross wells (including 10-15 gross exploration and appraisal wells), with approximately 65% to be allocated to development activities and 35% to exploration and appraisal activities.

Imperial Oil

Capital and exploration expenditures are forecasted to range between $1.9 to $2.1 billion. In the Upstream, key investments support volume growth, including technology to increase bitumen recovery and mine progression work at Kearl, as well as completion of the Leming redevelopment project and high-value drilling opportunities at Cold Lake. Downstream investments include completion of the Strathcona renewable diesel project, with start-up expected around mid-year, and additional optimization initiatives that enhance logistics and processing flexibility across the network.

In the Upstream, production is forecasted to grow to between 433,000 and 456,000 gross oil equivalent barrels per day. Higher volume reflects continued growth at Kearl, the first full-year contribution from Grand Rapids at Cold Lake, as well as other optimization initiatives.

Kolibri Global Energy 

Kolibri Global Energy has set a 2025 capital expenditure budget of US$48 million to US$53 million with average estimated production of between 4,500 to 5,100 boepd.

MEG Energy

MEG's total 2025 capital program is expected to be $635 million , with $130 million allocated to the Facility Expansion Project, $70 million to Turnaround, and the remaining $435 million to Well Pads & Infrastructure and Other. 

Annual production guidance of 95,000 to 105,000 bbls/d reflects a scheduled Q2 turnaround that will impact annual production by up to 8,000 bbls/d

Parex Resources

Parex  has set a capital expenditure guidance of $285 to $315 million, with approximately 60% of capital expected to be directed towards development and exploitation activity, primarily in LLA-34, Cabrestero, LLA-32 and the newly acquired Putumayo Blocks.

PetroTal

PetroTal have approved a 2025 budget of $140m (526.61m new sol), down by 14% from $163m in 2024, and aims to increase its oil production by approximately 30% in 2025, targeting an average output of between 21,000 and 23,000bopd.

The budget includes $55m for drilling and workover activities, with a focus on four development wells at the Bretana and Los Angeles oilfields, a decline from the seven wells drilled in 2024.

Additionally, $36.5m will be invested in erosion control measures at Bretana, with approximately 75% categorised as operating expenses.

The 2025 capital programme also includes $4m for exploration activities. This includes permitting and road construction at Block 107, following an extension secured for the fifth exploration period to advance the Osheki-Kametza prospect.

Prairie Operating Co.

Prairie has set a capital expenditure budget of $120 million – $130 million, focused on high-return drilling opportunities in the DJ Basin. 

The Company expects average daily production of 7,000 – 8,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOEPD), representing a ~300% increase year-over-year.

Saturn Oil & Gas

Saturn's development capital expenditures budget of $300 to $320 million is targeting stable production averaging 38,000-40,000 boe/d in 2025, approximately 85% of which is oil and liquids, with ongoing margin improvements through cost optimization, capitalizing on synergies, and streamlining operational processes to deliver greater value per barrel.

Over 70% of the 2025 Budget is expected to be deployed during the second half of the year (37% in Q3 and 34% in Q4), with 24% weighted to Q1 and the balance in Q2, reflecting the seasonal impacts of spring break-up.

Tenaz Energy

Tenaz Energy's Board of Directors has approved a drilling and development capital ("D&D CAPEX") budget of $30 to $34 million. The Company also intend to invest approximately $1.7 million in exploration and evaluation capital to evaluate the potential CCS project at L10 in the Dutch North Sea. Production guidance for 2025 is 2,900 to 3,100 boe/d, reflecting growth of approximately 10% from 2024. Budgeted D&D CAPEX for the Company's Netherlands non-operated assets is $21 to $23 million, including approximately $14 million for Malachite L10.

Annual consolidated production guidance for 2025 is 2,900 to 3,100 boe/d, approximately 10% higher than 2024.

Touchstone Exploration

Touchstone expects to invest approximately $23 million in capital expenditures for 2025. Of this, approximately $20 million is expected to be directed toward their Cascadura field. The remaining $3 million is allocated to exploration licence payments and well optimization operations across the Company's crude oil properties.

The Company project a mid-point annual average production of 7,000 boe/d for 2025, reflecting an estimated 19 percent increase from the latest 2024 guidance. Annual production is expected to range between 6,700 and 7,300 boe/d, with approximately 77 percent of production being natural gas.

Valeura Energy

Valeura Energy is planning total capex of US$125 – 150 million in 2025, in addition to approximately US$11 million in planned exploration drilling.  Approximately 85% of the Company’s capex plus exploration spending is directed toward drilling, and is based on the plan of having one drilling rig on contract for the full year.  The balance of planned capex is related to certain brownfield developments.  Capex guidance does not include any post Final Investment Decision (“FID”) costs for the Wassana redevelopment, and will be updated should the FID be approved.

Vermilion

Vermilion has approved an E&D capital budget of $600 – $625 million for 2025. The budget includes drilling and infrastructure capital allocated to all major business units, including ongoing drilling and debottlenecking on the BC Montney asset and European gas exploration and development in Germany, Netherlands, and Central and Eastern Europe. This level of capital investment is expected to deliver annual average production of 84,000 to 88,000 boe/d, which represents 2% growth at the mid-point compared to the original 2024 production guidance.

KeyFacts Energy: CapEx news

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