Cenovus Energy has announced its 2025 corporate guidance, which includes capital investment of $4.6 billion to $5.0 billion, delivering upstream production of 805,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) to 845,000 BOE/d and downstream crude unit utilization of 90% to 95%. Capital investment in 2025 will include about $3.2 billion of sustaining capital to maintain base production and support continued safe and reliable operations, with an additional $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion directed towards advancing the company’s upstream growth projects. Cenovus’s disciplined capital plan and strong emphasis on cost control will support continued returns to shareholders of 100% of excess free funds flow (EFFF) over time while maintaining net debt near $4.0 billion.

“Cenovus will deliver important milestones on our major growth projects in 2025, including achieving first oil from Narrows Lake, installation of the West White Rose offshore facilities and commencement of drilling, and preparations for first steam at the Foster Creek optimization project,” said Jon McKenzie, Cenovus President & Chief Executive Officer. “We’re entering the final year of a three-year investment cycle, which will drive planned production growth of 150,000 BOE/d by the end of 2028 and enable significant expansion of free funds flow. We will continue to be focused on controlling costs, improving the profitability of our strategic downstream business and optimizing our advantaged portfolio to deliver value for our shareholders.”

2025 highlights:

• Capital investment of between $4.6 billion to $5.0 billion, including approximately $3.2 billion of maintenance and sustaining capital and $1.4 billion to $1.8 billion of growth capital.
• Upstream production of between 805,000 BOE/d and 845,000 BOE/d, an increase of approximately 4%1 compared with 2024.
• Total downstream crude throughput of between 650,000 barrels per day (bbls/d) and 685,000 bbls/d, an increase of approximately 4%1 compared with 2024, representing crude unit utilization of between 90% and 95%.
• Oil sands non-fuel operating expenses per barrel of between $8.50 and $9.50, held flat compared with 2024.
• U.S. Refining operating expenses of $10.00/bbl to $12.00/bbl excluding turnaround costs, representing a decrease of 7%1 compared with 2024.
• General and administrative (G&A) costs are expected to remain flat relative to 2024, and expenses related to IT systems upgrades are projected to decrease significantly as the project will be recalibrated through 2025.

2025 guidance

Oil Sands

Oil sands production guidance for 2025 is 615,000 bbls/d to 635,000 bbls/d. The guidance range includes the impact of turnarounds at Foster Creek and Sunrise, as well as planned maintenance at Christina Lake, with an expected combined annualized impact of approximately 10,000 bbls/d to 12,000 bbls/d. Production is expected to be lower in the second quarter of 2025, reflecting turnaround and maintenance activity, with production expected to ramp up into the second half of 2025. Oil sands non-fuel operating costs are expected to be in the range of $8.50/bbl to $9.50/bbl in 2025, in line with 2024, with fuel costs of $2.25/bbl to $3.25/bbl.

Cenovus plans to invest $2.7 billion to $2.8 billion in its oil sands assets, including approximately $600 million to $700 million of growth capital. Growth investment in 2025 will include progressing the optimization and the enhanced sulphur recovery projects at Foster Creek, drilling new well pads at Sunrise and development drilling at our Conventional Heavy Oil business in the Lloydminster area. The Narrows Lake tie-back remains on track for mechanical completion by year-end 2024, with first oil expected by mid-year 2025.

Conventional

The company plans to invest between $350 million and $400 million in its conventional assets. Capital will be primarily used to maintain production, with a limited amount directed to production growth. Total production is expected to be between 125,000 BOE/d and 135,000 BOE/d, with operating costs of between $11.00/BOE and $12.00/BOE, down approximately 7%4 relative to 2024.

Offshore

Total Offshore production in 2025 is expected to be in the range of 65,000 BOE/d to 75,000 BOE/d. This includes between 10,000 bbls/d and 15,000 bbls/d in the Atlantic region, reflecting the return of production from the White Rose field. Production from the Asia Pacific region is expected to be between 55,000 BOE/d and 60,000 BOE/d.

Capital spending in the Offshore segment of between $0.9 billion and $1.0 billion will be primarily directed towards completion of the West White Rose project. Both the topsides and concrete gravity structure for West White Rose have achieved mechanical completion in the fourth quarter and will be floated offshore for installation at the field location in 2025, with drilling to commence in late 2025. First oil from the West White Rose project is expected in the first half of 2026, with peak net production of approximately 45,000 bbls/d anticipated in 2028.

Downstream

Crude throughput is expected to be between 650,000 bbls/d and 685,000 bbls/d, an increase of approximately 4%4 relative to 2024 and representing a crude utilization rate of approximately 90% to 95%. The increased crude throughput reflects continued improvements in reliability due to investments and process enhancements implemented across the company’s refineries. Downstream capital investment is projected to be between $650 million and $750 million, a similar level compared to 2024, primarily focused on safety, maintenance and reliability initiatives.

Crude throughput in Canadian Refining is expected to be between 100,000 bbls/d and 105,000 bbls/d, with operating costs of between $12.00/bbl and $14.00/bbl, excluding expensed turnaround costs, a decrease relative to 2024 partly due to the completion of a turnaround at the Lloydminster Upgrader in the current year.

Crude throughput in U.S. Refining is expected to be 550,000 bbls/d to 580,000 bbls/d, an increase of 2% 4 from 2024, with a continued focus on demonstrating reliability and profitability improvements. U.S. Refining operating costs, excluding expensed turnaround costs, are expected to be between $10.00/bbl and $12.00/bbl, a reduction of 7%4 from 2024.

KeyFacts Energy: Cenovus Canada country profile