David Sheret
Co Founder of Archer Knight. Often sceptical, more often optimistic. Always curious.

Asia stands apart from other world regions in its carbon emissions patterns and future trajectory. While much of the developed world has peaked or is slowing emissions growth, Asia continues on a high-emissions path - posing obstacles to global climate change mitigation.

According to the Global Carbon Budget Report 2022, Asia generates around half of global CO2 emissions from fossil fuel use and industrial processes. China and India alone accounted for 31% and 7% of total emissions in 2021. Emissions from both have risen significantly: China's have grown over 6-fold since 1990, India's almost 3-fold. Other Asian nations like Indonesia and Vietnam have also seen major increases.

By contrast, emissions have fallen in recent years across much of Europe and North America. The US and EU are each responsible for around 14-15% of global emissions - but the EU's have declined by over 20% since 1990, the US's by around 15%. Numerous other developed countries, from Germany to Mexico, have achieved absolute emission reductions of 10% or more in the past decade while growing GDP.

Behind this divergence lie different development paths and energy politics. Much of Asia's emissions growth is driven by coal powering rapid industrialisation. China burns over half the world's coal, with India also dependent - contrasting with coal's phase-out in Europe. While renewables expand fast in Asia, this barely keeps pace with rising energy demand. Oil and gas still supply over half of Asia's new needs.

Conversely, cleaner energy mixes, energy efficiency gains and offshoring of carbon-intensive industry have aided Western emission cuts. Europe has seen widespread coal-to-gas switching; North American fracking enabled coal-to-gas too. Vehicle efficiency standards are tighter; manufacturing is greener. Higher environmental standards and taxes also incentivise Western firms to shift production overseas, notably to Asia - effectively outsourcing emissions.

Asia's huge populations and developmental priorities still necessitate emissions growth. China and India each have circa 4 times the US population; Indonesia's is similar to Europe's entire. Much of Asia remains relatively poor. Its leaders thus emphasise economic development and poverty alleviation - requiring vast new infrastructure and energy capacity additions for rapidly expanding cities and industries; and it's also worth noting at this point that Guyana, Suriname, Mozambique and Namibia are all on similar trajectories in their respective continents of South America and Africa, too.

Combined with high reliance on coal, this makes near-term Asian emission cuts, if not infeasible, highly unlikely. By contrast, wealthier Western nations face less urgency for growth, have service-centric economies less tied to emissions and have environmental movements pushing climate policies. This has aided their lowering of emissions despite far smaller policy efforts than Asia's expanding renewable energy push.

Looking ahead, however, Asia's outlook may improve. China has pledged carbon neutrality by 2060; India by 2070. On paper, declining costs make renewable energy increasingly viable but as we have seen recently in the UK and Europe, the practical economics of renewable projects are not without their challenges. Automation and AI could enable 'green growth', with services and technology substituted for emissions-intensive activities and of course, fear of climate impacts may also spur policy changes.

Asia's outsized carbon footprint shows where labour must be directed. Yet for activists lambasting Western living standards, know this: even if Europe and America halted fossil fuels tomorrow, it would barely dent atmospheric carbon. That's not an excuse to crack on regardless. Far from it, we should IMHO continue to do everything realistically and practically possible to mitigate emissions.

But we should try and see the whole board. China and India combined account for nearly 40% of human emissions - far outweighing the West. Their developmental needs cannot be simply decried but must be accommodated with intelligent solutions: financing cleaner transitions; sharing expertise; jointly pioneering innovations from AI (cautiously) to carbon capture (constantly and robustly validating).

Rather than a Western finger wagging at the East, positive global environmentalism recognises our shared climate challenges. It focuses efforts where the needle can shift furthest. And it brings the world together in common cause, especially engaging the partners whose cooperation matters most. And let's face it, we need as many of these initiatives as we can get our hands on.

It's ok. I've got it! All good.

For the Dutch boy, one finger could not hold back the swelling sea forever. But many hands, intelligently applied, may yet adapt the dykes to the rising tide. Our climate fate too depends on pragmatic collective effort, not self-interested virtue signalling. If we learn from Asia's carbon trends, and work as one wherever and whenever remotely possible, we make a positive contribution to a sustainable transition.

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Archer Knight