WTI (July) $71.74 -41c, Brent (Aug) $76.29 -42c, Diff -$4.55 -1c
USNG (July) $2.26 +2c, UKNG (July) 59.62p -9.65p, TTF (July) €24.450 -€2.20

Oil price

Oil is up about a dollar today although short term ironically the economic news from China was worse, maybe traders can see the wood for the trees.

IOG

IOG has provided an operational and financial update following well clean-up and testing operations at the Blythe H2 well over 4-7 June.

Blythe H2 clean-up and testing

• The H2 well was drilled to a total depth of 13,400 ft MD and initial data indicated better reservoir quality (permeability and porosity) in the H2 wellbore versus H1
• The well has flowed at a maximum dry gas rate of 22.8 mmscf/d and 280-336 bbl/d condensate at the export pipeline pressure of 1250psi, with no formation water observed
• This is an improvement on current H1 rate, but below the expected initial H2 gas rate of 30-40 mmscf/d
• There is evidence that a potential mechanical blockage downhole is constraining flow. Equipment is being mobilised in the coming weeks to assess and rectify this potential blockage.
• No faults or fractures were encountered in the H2 reservoir section, unlike at H1 where a sub-seismic fracture appears to be causing formation water production

Blythe H2 next steps

• H2 will now be handed over for final hook-up and commissioning (“HUC”) and remains expected to be brought onstream this month, despite the 34 days lost to the well control event  
• Safely completing the H2 HUC is expected to require approximately one week of planned downtime
• The remedial downhole equipment will be mobilised in the coming weeks and run in the well with the rig alongside, with H2 well shut in during these operations  
• Once H2 production is on, H1 is planned to be shut in; in a higher gas price environment it could be possible to reopen H1 at lower rates to minimise water production

Blythe H1 production operations

• The current gross unconstrained H1 production rate is approximately 15.5 mmscf/d
• Average 2023 gross production year to date to 31 May was 13.9 mmscf/d, factoring in shutdowns and liquid letdowns alongside other Bacton gas streams 
• Operating Efficiency over that period has been 93.9% and Production Efficiency 84.6%

Financial Update

• Final H2 well costs are expected to be approximately £15m net to IOG, consistent with guidance provided on 2 May
• The gas market environment has become increasingly challenging over recent months. In January 2023, the Company’s average realised gas price was 214 p/therm. When the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts (“ARA”) was released on 16 March 2023, the UK NBP Day-ahead gas price was 126 p/therm. This then fell to 64 p/therm by 6 June 2023. The average realised price for May 2023 was 72 p/therm and 2023 realised average to the end of May was 112 p/therm.
• The forward curve for 2H 2023 has also dropped considerably with near term prices at a 20-month low and less than half the level in February 2022 before the Ukraine war. Given the complex dynamics involved, there is also considerable uncertainty about the outlook for future gas prices.
• The going concern section of the ARA highlighted the evolution of gas prices as a key risk facing the business. The recent substantial further falls in gas prices means the Company is now likely to breach one or more of the covenants under the terms of its €100 million senior secured bond at the next covenant test date of 30 June 2023.
• The ARA also highlighted the importance to the Company of the Blythe H2 well. The Company is assessing the impacts of potentially lower than expected H2 production rates.  
• The Board has been proactively taking mitigating actions to address balance sheet risks, including appointing an independent corporate finance firm, Smith Square Partners, which has considerable experience in advising companies in similar situations

The Company has also engaged in preliminary discussions with an ad-hoc group of bondholders representing c. 40% of the bonds. The purpose of these discussions, which the Board views as constructive to date, is:

a)   to secure pre-emptive waivers of potential covenant breaches
b)   to agree measures to enable the Company to withstand short term consequences of recent gas price developments
c)   to explore the most effective means of addressing the maturity of the bond in September 2024

In this context, the Board remains highly focused on maximising near-term production and reducing operating costs, as well as minimising capital expenditure, as reflected in the Goddard farm-out process   

• Cash at bank as at 31 May 2022 was £21.5 million, including restricted funds of £6.8 million

Rupert Newall, CEO, commented:
“The Blythe H2 well has tested at a maximum gas rate of 22.8 mmscf/d at the pipeline export pressure, appearing to be constrained by a suspected downhole mechanical blockage. H2 has been executed safely and efficiently considering that 34 days were lost to the well control event and remains on track to come onstream later this month following final hook-up and commissioning. 

Meanwhile, the Company has come under increased pressure from severe gas market volatility, with UK NBP Day-ahead gas prices falling by over 85% from August 2022 to June 2023. In that context, we have initiated constructive discussions with an ad-hoc group of our largest bondholders around potential short and longer-term solutions. We will keep all stakeholders updated as appropriate on the progress of these discussions.“

A different operational problem at Blythe, IOG has encountered a downhole problem which hadn’t shown up on the data and which is why the 30-40 mmscf/d rate was expected, now they are investigating what the blockage might be and hoping that it is not a reservoir issue. Initial thoughts of a mechanical blockage of some sort rather than a fracture which may yet be properly identified and resolved, or not. 

In the meantime H1 continues until H2 is ready to take over, either way the production will for the time being be disappointing but well costs were higher than expected and of course ‘severe gas market volatility’ means that it is proving to be somewhat of a double whammy in terms of revenue. 

The company are in talks with the bondholders and with the gas price showing more than usual volatility and without the support in the longer end of the strip revenues will remain under pressure and operationally the company needs to keep its eyes open.

Jersey Oil & Gas

Jersey Oil & Gas has announced that the North Sea Transition Authority has approved an extension to the Second Term of its P2498 “Buchan” Licence.  The Company is also pleased to report that the NSTA has approved the Company’s request to assign a 50% working interest in both licence P2498 and licence P2170 (“Verbier”) to NEO Energy, as part of the recently announced Greater Buchan Area farm-out transaction.

The Second Term of licence P2498 has been extended by 18 months to 28 February 2025.  The extension was requested in order to provide the licensees with the time required to prepare a Field Development Plan (“FDP”) for the redevelopment of the Buchan field, which is planned for submission to the NSTA during 2024.  Following FDP approval the licence moves into the Third Term, which covers the development and production phase of activities for the life of the field.

Following these approvals, the Company has now satisfied the conditions precedent associated with the farm-out of the 50% interest in licence P2498 to NEO.  In terms of the P2170 licence assignment to NEO, the Company is in the process of completing the final outstanding condition precedent.  It is anticipated that completion of both licence assignments will occur in June 2023.

As expected JOG has received confirmation that approvals have been given for both P2498 and P2170 for an extension and assignment of a 50% WI to NEO respectively. The companies are clearly completing the final condition precedent which moves things on further. 

After that the FDP should be underway ready for next year and to me the GBA project looks to be one of the finest potential developments in the North Sea, it will give JOG a potential of significant upside and therefore my TP remains at £10. 

Jadestone Energy

Jadestone has announced the successful completion of the US$85 million financing announced on 6 June 2023, which consisted of a net US$50 million Placing and Subscription, at a price of 45 pence per new Ordinary Share, and the Standby Working Capital Facility by Tyrus Capital S.A.M. and funds controlled by it.

Further, the Company today confirms the details of the Open Offer to raise gross proceeds of up to approximately US$8.3 million, offering existing shareholders who have not participated in the Placing an ability to acquire shares at the Offer Price.

The Company will hold a webcast presentation for analysts and investors on Wednesday, 7 June 2023, at 9:30 a.m. (BST) including a question and answer session (details can be found below).

Capitalised terms used but not defined in this announcement shall have the meaning given to them in the announcement published by the Company on 6 June 2023 in connection with the Financing.

Paul Blakeley, President and CEO commented:
“I would like to thank all participating shareholders for their support in this financing which, alongside the RBL, now underpins our near-term production growth and the diversification of our production and revenue base, improving the resilience and the outlook for the Company significantly. Now that routine operations have been restored at Montara, and with a visibly stronger balance sheet, we have great confidence in delivering the Company’s growth trajectory.”

The final denouement of the last year or so has happened, after the Montara debacle which was frankly not their fault but happened on their watch. Today the announcement of an $85m raise with all the trimmings at a grim price of 45p. The upside is that 26.5% shareholder Tyrus underwrote the deal, is highly supportive and took his corner of the deal. 

When something like this happens you either double down and back the management team or call it a day. I am with Tyrus and feel that whilst it feels like quite an ask the odds are strongly in favour of Jadestone recovering. 

With the proceeds to be used for capex in a number of areas as well as at least one potential deal already in the pipeline the balance sheet will turn around fairly quickly, maybe even net cash before the guidance of next year. 

I have always felt that Jadestone is an excellent company with high quality management and a good, growing portfolio and have recommended it ever since it came to London and it sits in the Bucket List. That shows just how wrong I was but then so have the management not covered themselves in glory. 

Having said all that I have decided that having thought over the potential upside from here, investors should do what the management are doing and that is starting afresh from here, it’s a big ask but the plan will work.

Results of Placing and Subscription
A total of 81,018,248 new Ordinary Shares (the “Placing Shares”) have been conditionally placed with new and existing institutional investors and certain Directors pursuant to the Placing by Stifel Nicolaus Europe Limited (“Stifel”), at a price of 45 pence per new Ordinary Share (the “Offer Price”). In addition, 13,063,578 new Ordinary Shares (the “Subscription Shares”) have been conditionally subscribed for by certain Directors of the Company (and entities affiliated to certain Directors) and other investors, at the Offer Price pursuant to the Subscription.

A total of 94,081,826 new Ordinary Shares will therefore be issued pursuant to the Placing and Subscription, raising gross proceeds of US$52.6 million, and net proceeds of US$50.0 million. The new Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Placing and Subscription will represent approximately 17.4 per cent. of the Company’s enlarged ordinary share capital at Admission.

The Offer Price represents a 8.2 per cent. discount to the mid-market closing price on 6 June 2023.

Application has been be made to the London Stock Exchange for Admission of the Placing Shares and Subscription Shares to trading on AIM. It is expected that Admission will take place at 8.00 am on 9 June 2023 (at which time the Placing will become unconditional) and that dealings in the Placing Shares and Subscription Shares on AIM will commence at the same time.

The new Ordinary Shares to be issued pursuant to the Placing and Subscription will, when issued, be credited as fully paid and will rank pari passu in all respects with the existing Ordinary Shares of the Company, including the right to receive all dividends or other distributions made, paid or declared in respect of such shares after the date of issue of the new Ordinary Shares.

Tyrus subscribed in the Placing for its pro rata 26.45% interest, being 24,883,387 new Ordinary Shares at the Offer Price in the Placing, for gross proceeds of US$13.9 million.

The size of the Equity Underwrite Facility will reduce pro-rata by the total amount raised pursuant to the Placing and Subscription (including Tyrus’ equity participation) and accordingly it is expected that on Admission of the Placing Shares and Subscription Shares, the Equity Underwrite Facility will be extinguished.

The size of the Standby Working Capital Facility is expected on Admission of the Placing Shares and Subscription Shares to reduce by US$2.6 million as a result of the Placing and Subscription being in excess of US$50 million and will be subject to further reduction as a result of the Open Offer.  The Company does not expect to draw on the Standby Working Capital Facility.

Open Offer
Further to the announcement made on 6 June 2023, and given the successful closing of the Bookbuild, the Company confirms its intention to raise up to approximately US$8.3 million at the Offer Price, by the issue of up to 14,887,039 Open Offer Shares at the Offer Price, payable in full on acceptance.

Qualifying Shareholders may apply for Open Offer Shares under the Open Offer at the Offer Price pro rata to their holdings of Ordinary Shares on the Record Date on the basis of:

1 Open Offer Share for every 30 Existing Ordinary Shares held

The Open Offer is aimed at those Qualifying Shareholders who were not given the opportunity to participate in the Placing or Subscription. Shareholders which have been allocated Placing Shares in the Placing have agreed pursuant to the Placing Terms and Conditions that they will not apply for any Open Offer Shares in the Open Offer in respect of any existing shareholdings and the Placing Shares and Subscription Shares will not qualify for the Open Offer, as the record date for the Open Offer will be prior to the issue of the Placing Shares and Subscription Shares.

Any entitlements to Open Offer Shares not subscribed for by Qualifying Shareholders will be available to Qualifying Shareholders under the Excess Application Facility. The balance of any Open Offer Shares not subscribed for under the Excess Application Facility will not be available to the Placees under the Placing.

Subject to availability, the Excess Application Facility enables Qualifying Shareholders to apply for Excess Shares up to the maximum number of Open Offer Shares available less their Open Offer Entitlement.

Applicants can apply for less or more than their entitlements under the Open Offer, but the Company cannot guarantee that any application for Excess Shares under the Excess Application Facility will be satisfied, as this will depend, in part, on the extent to which other Qualifying Shareholders apply for less than or more than their own Open Offer Entitlements.

Qualifying Shareholders should note that the Open Offer is not a rights issue and therefore any Open Offer Shares which Qualifying Shareholders do not apply for will not be sold in the market for the benefit of Qualifying Shareholders. The Open Offer application form is not a document of title and cannot be traded or otherwise transferred.

Egdon/Union Jack Oil

Egdon yesterday advised that it has reluctantly made the decision to withdraw the planning appeals in relation to the refusal of planning consent for exploratory drilling at North Kelsey, which were due to be heard at a hearing on 14 and 15 June 2023.

This decision follows recent correspondence with the Planning Inspector where it became clear that he viewed the lateral borehole, which was included in the latest application, as new development which was outside of the original red line boundary of the 2014 planning consent and therefore which could not be properly considered as part of a Section 73 application as made.  In this correspondence both Egdon and Lincolnshire County Council, as the minerals planning authority, expressed the position that the lateral borehole was valid under Section 73.

The lateral borehole is a fundamental aspect of the exploratory well at North Kelsey to ensure all exploration targets are fully explored.  Therefore, to ensure that there is clarity on this matter Egdon will be submitting a new planning application for consideration by Lincolnshire County Council as soon as possible. This application will be accompanied by recently completed updated traffic, ecology and flood risk assessments.

As part of this process we will undertake fresh consultation with the local community prior to submitting the application. This will provide the opportunity for members of the public and parish councils to inspect the proposals at North Kelsey and be more informed during the formal consultation process undertaken by Lincolnshire County Council. 

Commenting Mark Abbott, Managing Director of Egdon, said;
“Whilst it is disappointing to have to withdraw the appeals at this late stage and with the strong belief that our case for approval was compelling, we and our advisors unfortunately saw little option given that a lateral borehole is key to the exploratory drilling, and to ensure clarity and robustness in any decision made. 

We will now focus on finalising a new application supported by recently completed updated technical assessments to account for any changes since the original planning consent from 2014.”

This is one of the most disgraceful things I have ever seen and if I had not spent 24 hours looking at it I would hardly believe it. On the one side the Planning Inspector viewed the lateral borehole as being outside of the original red line boundary of the 2014 planning consent and therefore which could not be properly considered as part of a Section 73 application as made.

On the other side both Egdon and Lincolnshire County Council, as the minerals planning authority, expressed the position that the lateral borehole was valid under Section 73. But despite both the company and the LCC agreeing they have to kow tow to the Planning Inspector whoever he may be. 

This country is not going to the dogs, its going to the Planning Inspectors who now seem to decide about domestic oil and gas policy, if there is one. For the love of…..

Gulfsands Petroleum

Gulfsands Petroleum has announced the Company’s Annual Report and Accounts for the year-ended 31 December 2022 are now available to shareholders along with a Notice of the Annual General Meeting.  The 2022 Annual Report and Accounts and Notice of AGM are available to download from the Company’s website, www.gulfsands.com and from the Company’s registered office at 6th Floor, 60 Gracechurch Street, London, EC3V 0HR.  A letter has been dispatched to all shareholders explaining the arrangements for the AGM together with hard copies of the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts and Notice of AGM to any shareholders who have elected to receive them.

In issuing the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts, Gulfsands’ Managing Director Mr. John Bell said:
“We are pleased to present the 2022 Annual Report and Accounts, which outlines the continued progress made by the Company during the last year.

 The highlight of our year was the establishment of our Middle Eastern hub in the world-renowned Abu Dhabi Global Market in Abu Dhabi.  Our newly formed subsidiary, Gulfsands Middle East Limited, will focus on increasing Gulfsands’ presence in the region, to both contribute meaningfully to the regional political discussion surrounding Syria, and to step up business development activities in the region.

We also continue to promote and advocate for “Project Hope”, a Humanitarian and Economic Stimulus initiative whereby international energy companies would return to operations in North-East Syria, with allocated revenues from oil sales deposited in an internationally administered fund and disbursed to finance early recovery, humanitarian, economic and security projects across the country – for the benefit of all Syrian people.”

For a company that is delisted, this is a high quality document, indeed it displays the standards of a listed company which, to be honest, as a PLC with a  highly experienced management, it always has been. I always keep an eye on Asset Match which is where the shares are traded.

I wrote about the Abu Dhabi hub a few months ago. This seemed like a wise move at the time, as it meant that key Gulf players watching activities in Syria were all close by. This has proved to be the case as the regional players, especially UAE and Saudi Arabia consider a more active role in respect of Syria. Indeed, Syria’s readmission to the Arab League is a development that might act as a catalyst to help resolve some of the complex issues Syria faces, and provide relief for all Syrians. Gulfsands’ Project Hope initiative sounds like it could be part of that solution.

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog