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Commentary: Oil price, Arrow Exploration

13/03/2023

WTI (Apr) $76.68 +96c, Brent (May) $82.78 +$1.19, Diff -$6.10 +23c
USNG (Apr) $2.43 -11c, UKNG (Apr) 131.0p +21.41p, TTF (Apr) €48.45 +€3.06

Oil price

Oil was down last week after the worries over Jerome Powell’s comments on the Hill but the aggression on rates has dissipated somewhat after the concerns over SVB and other banks. With the jobs data a bit mixed we now look for the next report which this week is inflation…

Arrow Exploration

Arrow has provided an update on the drilling activity at Rio Cravo Este (RCE) on the Tapir Block in the Llanos Basin of Colombia.

RCE-4 Update
The RCE-4 well was spud on March 1, 2023, and reached total depth on March 8, 2023. RCE-4 is located within the RCE oil field on the Tapir Block in the Llanos Basin of Colombia. The well was drilled to a total measured depth of 8,546 feet (8,053 feet true vertical depth) and encountered six hydrocarbon bearing intervals totaling 45 net feet of oil pay (measured depth).

The following hydrocarbon bearing intervals have been identified:

  • Carbonera C7:  25 feet net oil pay over two intervals
  • Lower Gacheta: 20 feet net oil pay over four intervals

Interval thicknesses are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or ultimate recovery.

It is expected that the RCE-4 well will begin production in late March 2023. The rig will then be moved to the RCE-5 location with the intention that RCE-5 will spud within a few days of RCE-4 being brought on production.

RCE-3 Update
RCE-3 continues to flow naturally at 650 BOPD gross with no pressure drop and zero water cut. We anticipate activating the submersible pump to increase production on a measured conservative basis to achieve balance between maximum production and ultimate recoverable reserves. The same incremental approach will be applied to RCE-4 and RCE-5

Capella Field Update
Meetings have progressed between the government, protesters and operator regarding the Capella field in the Ombu block. The government has agreed to some of the demands of the protesters and is reviewing other requests. Protesters have been leaving the area. The Capella field continues to be shut in and is currently protected by the Colombia military.  Arrow hopes for a safe and quick resolution and return to operations.

Marshall Abbott, CEO of Arrow commented:
“RCE-4 was drilled quicker than any other well on the Rio Cravo structure to date. The team’s growing experience with the play is resulting in more efficient operations and lower costs. The log results of RCE‑4 are in line with our expectations for the well.  This is the fifth well drilled by Arrow on the Tapir block and it has confirmed the continuity of oil-bearing intervals seen in adjacent wells.”

“We’re currently completing the C7 zone, targeting to be on stream in late March. This will increase Arrow’s production and reserves. Arrow will bring RCE-4 on slowly and increase production to best manage the oil reservoir.

Once RCE-5 is drilled, the rig will mobilize to drill the three planned wells on the Carrizales Norte Structure 20 km away.

“The results of the RCE-3 and RCE-4 wells, together with our confidence in the outcome of the RCE-5 well and our upcoming program at Carrizales Norte, provide us with confidence that we will achieve the stated objective of achieving a production rate of 3,000 boe/d within 18 months of its AIM listing (completed in October 2021). The next few months will be an exciting and busy time for Arrow, and we look forward to providing further updates on our progress.”

Board Plans
Following the resignation from the board of Maria Charash to pursue other opportunities, Arrow plans to add a new independent Board member once a suitable candidate has been identified.

Another successful well for Arrow as they continue their drilling programme in Colombia. The RCE-4 well reached TD with six hydrocarbon discoveries with 45ft of net pay primarily in the Carbonera and the Lower Gacheta.. 

These will be completed in the C7 zone and should be on production in late March after which the RCE-5 will spud. After that the three planned wells on the Carrizales Norte structure, which is 20km away will be drilled. 

Arrow are making this look easy, with more efficient, quicker drilling and lower costs, the company are making great strides towards the target which is to reach 3,000 b/d of production. With such a strong balance sheet and plenty of opportunities I remain convinced that Arrow is one of the most attractive shares in the sector. Currently standing at change from 19p and with my target price of 50p, I like the look at the share price chart and am very happy for it to be a Bucket List winner. 

KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Malcy's Blog

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