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EIA: Eastern Mediterranean Regional Analysis Brief

17/11/2022

Eastern Mediterranean in context

  • Natural gas production grew significantly in the Eastern Mediterranean after major offshore discoveries in Egypt and Israel began commercial operations in the 2010s. Cyprus’s natural gas finds are still in the development phase and could significantly increase regional growth once commercial production begins.
  • Development of midstream infrastructure for natural gas in the Eastern Mediterranean is still emerging. As of October 2022, Egypt is the only country in the region with liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, which Israel also uses to deliver natural gas outside the region. Jordan and Lebanon are considering developing infrastructure that would allow additional natural gas import flexibility. Greece and Turkey want to develop additional LNG import capacity, which would strengthen their role as transit countries by enabling the countries to import greater volumes of natural gas that could then be delivered via pipeline to other countries in Europe.

Exploration

  • In 2021, Egypt completed a licensing round for 24 exploration blocks located in the Western Desert, the Gulf of Suez, the Nile Delta, and the Mediterranean Sea, areas that already have produced significant volumes of crude oil and natural gas. The government announced bid winners in January 2022; however, it only awarded eight blocks. Eni received exploration licenses to five blocks, and the other bid winners were BP, Apex International Energy, Energean Egypt, INA, Enap Sipetrol, and United Energy
  • Israel announced its third offshore bidding round (OBR3) on June 23, 2020, which offered one exploration block (Block 72) in the northern part of Israel’s Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ). The final date for bid submissions was on September 23, 2020, and according to Rystad Energy, the awarded bids are expected to be announced in the third quarter of 2022. In May 2022, Israel announced plans to launch a fourth offshore bidding round for natural gas exploration, meant to help provide Europe with an alternative source of natural gas other than Russia. The fourth offshore bidding rounds would offer 25 exploration blocks in six clusters, and the official call for bids could close by the end of 2022.
  • Jordan launched a bidding round in 2021, offering nine concession areas for oil and natural gas exploration in an effort to revive its hydrocarbons sector and reduce high use of imports. According to Rystad Energy, submission for bids is expected to close in May 2023, and awards will be announced sometime in the third quarter of 2023
  • Lebanon launched its second offshore bidding round for eight blocks (Blocks 1–3, 5–8, and 10) in November 2021 and set an initial deadline of June 2022 for bid submissions. The government later extended the deadline to submit bids to December 15, 2022, to allow more companies to participate and to ensure a competitive bidding process. According to Rystad Energy, the country plans to award bids for the blocks in the second quarter of 2023.
  • Cyprus, Greece, and Turkey do not have any bidding rounds currently underway or planned for the near future

Petroleum and other liquid fuels

Reserves

  • According to estimates as of January 1, 2022, by the Oil & Gas Journal, Egypt has the largest crude oil reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, holding about 3.3 billion barrels in proved reserves. Turkey is the second largest, holding only 371 million barrels. Greece, Israel, and Jordan hold relatively small volumes of proved crude oil reserves by comparison. Data on proved crude oil reserves for Cyprus and Lebanon are not available.

Production

  • Egypt is the largest liquid fuels producer in the Eastern Mediterranean, producing an average of about 702,000 barrels per day (b/d) from 2012 to 2021. Egypt’s total liquid fuels production increased slightly in the latter half of the 2010s, after the Zohr natural gas field came online. Egypt’s production began to decline by 2019, however, as a result of maturing fields and lack of any new significant discoveries.
  • Turkey produced an average of about 66,000 b/d in total liquid fuels between 2012 and 2021. Greece and Israel also both produce only small amounts of liquid fuels, averaging 13,000 b/d and 5,000 b/d, respectively, between 2012 and 2021.
  • Cyprus, Jordan, and Lebanon produced little, if any, liquid fuels between 2012 and 2021 

Natural gas

Reserves

  • According to estimates as of January 1, 2022, by the Oil & Gas Journal, Egypt had the largest natural gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean, and Israel had the second largest, albeit they are significantly smaller volumes than the proved reserves in Egypt. Greece, Jordan, and Turkey all hold below 1 trillion cubic feet (Tcf) of proved natural gas reserves. Data on Cypru’s and Lebanon’s proved natural gas reserves are not available

Production

  • Egypt is the largest natural gas producer in the Eastern Mediterranean, producing an average of about 1.9 Tcf per year between 2012 and 2019. Prior to commercialization of the Zohr field, Egypt’s natural gas production declined between 2012 and 2017 because of a lack of new discoveries coming online and natural declines in its maturing fields. After the discovery of the Zohr field in 2015 and the subsequent fast-tracking of its development, the field came online in 2017 and provided a significant increase in Egypt’s natural gas production. Egypt produced over 2.1 Tcf of dry natural gas in 2018, which was approximately 40% higher than in 2016, the year before the field came online.
  • Israel is the second-largest natural gas producer in the Eastern Mediterranean, producing an average of 276 billion cubic feet (Bcf) per year between 2012 and 2019. Prior to 2012, Israel produced very little domestic natural gas, but natural gas production increased significantly after the first phase of Israel’s recent natural gas discoveries, the Tamar field, came online in 2013. Other natural gas discoveries, such as the Leviathan, Karish, and Tanin fields, will continue to increase Israel’s natural gas production once these fields begin commercial operations in the 2020s.
  • Turkey and Jordan have very little domestic natural gas production; Turkey averaged about 16 Bcf per year of natural gas, and Jordan averaged 5 Bcf between 2012 and 2019. Jordan’s only producing field is the Risha field in the northeast, and production from this field is used as feedstock for power generation. Most of Turkey’s domestic natural gas production comes from the Thrace region, which lies west of Istanbul, and from shallow offshore fields in the Black Sea region. Turkey currently has very limited production, but recent offshore natural gas discoveries in the Black Sea region provide significant potential for the country’s future production. Cyprus, Greece, and Lebanon have little if any domestic natural gas production

Recent natural gas discoveries

  • Cyprus has made a string of natural gas discoveries recently that may enable the country to become a significant regional producer in the future. In August 2022, Eni announced Cyprus’s latest discovery after drilling the Cronos-1 well in Block 6, located southwest offshore of the island. Eni is the operator of Block 6 and holds a 50% interest, and TotalEnergies holds the other half. Although the discovery has not yet been appraised, Eni’s preliminary estimates indicate that the discovery holds about 2.5 Tcf of natural gas in place. The Cronos-1 discovery follows other major finds in Cyprus, such as the Aphrodite discovery in 2011, the Calypso discovery in 2018, and the Glaucus discovery in 2019. Glaucus is the only discovery appraised so far, based on Rystad Energy reports. Appraisal and development of these natural gas discoveries are still in progress, and online dates remain uncertain, according to estimates provided by Rystad Energy.
  • Egypt’s Zohr field, located in the Shorouk concession, came online in 2017 and is the country’s largest natural gas discovery to date. Eni, the operator, announced the discovery in 2015, and development of the Zohr field was fast-tracked, enabling it to begin production about two years after the discovery was announced. Natural gas production at the Zohr field reportedly reached approximately 1.0 Tcf per year in February 2021, but unplanned outages in 2020 and 2021 have since constrained output. Eni plans to drill additional wells to increase capacity, but the outlook remains uncertain. Other fields, such as the Baltim Southwest field (a shallow water discovery located in the Baltim concession that began commercial production in September 2019) and the Bashrush discovery (a deepwater discovery announced in July 2020) could provide additional, albeit relatively smaller, volumes that will increase Egypt’s natural gas production.
  • The Athena discovery, which is located near the Karish and Tanin fields offshore of Israel, was confirmed in May 2022 by Energean, the operator of the commercial block. According to Offshore Technology, preliminary analysis of the Athena discovery’s recoverable resources are estimated to be 8 billion cubic meters (or about 283 Bcf) and may be developed as a tie-back to the Energean Power Floating Production Storage Offloading, which was built to develop the adjacent Karish and Tanin fields. The Athena discovery is Israel’s most recent offshore natural gas discovery after the Leviathan, Tanin, and Tamar discoveries. Chevron will operate the Tamar and Leviathan discoveries, which will be developed in phases over the next decade. The Karish and Tanin discoveries are two other offshore discoveries, which Energean is currently developing and will likely begin commercial operations within the next six years, according to estimates provided by Rystad Energy.
  • Turkey announced that it had made two significant natural gas discoveries in 2020. The Sakarya and Amasra natural gas discoveries are located in the Black Sea region outside of the Eastern Mediterranean and so are not included in this report.23 Greece, Jordan, and Lebanon currently have not reported any significant recent natural gas discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean

Original article   l   KeyFacts Energy Industry Directory: Energy Information Administration (EIA)

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