Two main separatist leaders were due to appear before two different judges on 26 July: Sunday Adeyemo (a.k.a. Sunday Igboho) who is the main leader in the agitation for a Yoruba nation; and Nnamdi Kanu who heads the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB). The former’s trial is in the Benin Republic while the latter was due to appear in Abuja but was unexpectedly adjourned until 21 October. Their simultaneous trials will undoubtedly increase ethnic tensions. 

Southwest politicians face a delicate situation with Igboho’s arrest and the Federal Government’s attempt to have him extradited from Benin to Nigeria. A potential trial in Nigeria would put enormous pressure on regional leaders and their political fortunes are likely to be shaped by how they respond to it. Many perhaps secretly hope that he will be jailed in Benin which would be less controversial than his extradition to, and trial in, Nigeria.

Igboho’s situation is also a huge threat to the political ambitions of the All Progressives Congress’ (APC) national leader, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is the presumed frontrunner to succeed President Muhammadu Buhari in 2023. Some believe that he is using the Igboho situation to put pressure on the APC to choose him as its’ presidential candidate. In the Southwest, however, he is viewed as a traitor who has been ignoring the Igboho case because of his own personal political ambitions. 

SUNDAY IGBOHO (L) AND NNAMDI KANU (R)

President Buhari has to take action to address the widespread perception that he is being soft on armed bandits in the North but, by contrast, is unnecessarily hard on non-violent separatists in the South. This perception increased by the fact that he has just is increasing ethnic tensions in the South. 

Kanu and Igboho’s simultaneous arrests and anticipated trial have succeeded - for the first time in the country’s post-independence history - in uniting the two major tribes in the South around the quest to break up the country. Sympathy for their demands continue to grow in the region because their prosecution is seen as an overkill when compared with how the bandits in the North have been treated by President Buhari’s government. It was therefore perhaps surprising that he left the country on 26 July for a two-week trip to London to see his doctors.

Meanwhile, the president’s inner circle is putting pressure on him to become more involved in the decision-making process about who should succeed him in 2023. While they use the argument that this will ensure that Buhari’s legacy is protected, the main reason is that they are worried that, unless they get one of their own to succeed him, they could be threatened by the increasing number of petitions that are being filed against the government at the International Criminal Court (ICC). 

This excerpt is taken from Nigeria Politics & Security, Menas' weekly intelligence report on Nigeria. Click here to receive a free sample copy.

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